Markets. Very interesting that on the one side there is the European debt crisis and US slowing with employment stalling, versus corporate profitability, which has never been stronger, very low interest rates and stock market is reasonable. He feels the market is cheap and the US should start pulling out and start growing.
TSX. We are very close to the 200 day moving average, which means we are still in a downward channel. We are moving to the upper side of that channel but it is still indicating a bearish trend. US is a little more encouraging word there is more of a convergence in the moving averages. An indication of a thaw would be if we hit 13,000 and13,900 would be an indication we were breaking out of the channel..
Cdn$ versus the Euro. The euro has been bottoming around the $0.70 level. (You need an FX account to trade this.) The pattern is a declining wedge with support in the 70s. if it can break out of that, we could probably see 80 or 90.
Market. There is some interesting historical commonalty as to where we are in this crash. We were at the top of the market in 1972 and fell 50%. Rallied back to where it started in 72. Similar to what happened in 2008. While economics were totally different, investor psychology is basically the same. Takes quite a while for the fear factor to subside. Thinks we are currently in a sideways consolidation. While you are waiting for the market to repair self, get some yield.
Markets. Between now and the 3rd week of July, you can expect markets to go higher. When Independence Day happens in the US, there is usually a nice boot in Cdn and US equity markets, which lasts for a relatively short period of time. This year there is also anticipation of very strong 2nd quarter earnings. The bad news is that when the 2nd quarter earnings come out, there will be warnings and negative guidance. This summer can have exceptional volatility because of the Greek situation, US debt situation, Japanese cleanup, etc.
Natural gas. Seasonal bottom for this is around the middle of August and is often related to weather. If it is warmer than average, more gases needed for air-conditioning. During the last 2 years there has been a huge amount of natural gas available. Last year we had cool weather which is not positive for natural gas.
TMX-LSE merger. Concerned that the Maple group could win out. Banks own this group and one of the main reasons the banks got into this is because they've seen erosion in trading fees. By owning the exchange, they'll be up to get fees back up and they'll have a virtual monopoly. Would like to see the TMX stay independent.
Markets. There are some negative signs out there. There is a vast amount of commercial mortgage backed securities that needs to find a home. Fundamentally he is a believer in human ingenuity and you will find good companies and good businesses will prosper. Currently it looks a little bit bearish to him but he is finding opportunity in different sectors.
Market: It’s been a tough few months. Has been in a lot of cash. Takes his signs from the markets. In the last few days he has seen some encouraging signs. E.g. China – Saw some good strength end of last week. Last 4 or 5 days in technology, had some good strength. There is still trouble with oil and some commodities. A good shot that we could get at least a short-term rally. Put some money back to work in aerospace, machinery, some technology companies, some retail and restaurants.
Economy. Seeing a slowdown and the market is pulling back but doesn't feel there will be a recession. Continuation of rapid growth in Asia is going to save us from a recession. China has the ability to stimulate their economy physically and by lowering rates. Growth is continuing in North America even though it is slow. US will be pulled out by their big global, competitive internationals over time.
Gold. Prefers equities to commodities because of the large moves in gold price. His preference is Goldcorp (G-T) because he believes they are going to add significantly to their production. Even if gold bounces around a little he would prefer to own the equity. Feels gold prices are going to go up. What is putting the support on it is buying in Asia.
Has being cautious on equities since early spring. The big rally off on March/09 lows has been largely liquidity driven and this last gasp was mostly driven by QE2. With ending of QE2, stimulus spending began to fade. Consumer debt in North America is a major problem and, potentially down the road sovereign debt will create some political issues.
Commodities. Expect to go sideways for the summer. We are in a soft patch with commodities right now. However, she is quite positive on the whole commodity sector over the next 12 months. Stocks are a great buy at this time. Likes copper and gold at this time. Although China is slowing, it is still quite robust.