A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 8/11. Up 14.3%.) 4.25% Canada Real Return Bonds due 12/01/21. Inflation protected.
COMMENT
Europe. He is currently buying in Europe. Moving forward, he suspects there might be better opportunities in Europe. Perhaps towards the end of the year might be a bit better to pick up new positions.
COMMENT
Facebook IPO? Personally, he would not own this at this time. It is going to run very quickly. Historically these are trading stocks. If you want to trade, the duration will probably be 30 days.Facebook IPO? Personally, he would not own this at this time. It is going to run very quickly. Historically these are trading stocks. If you want to trade, the duration will probably be 30 days.
COMMENT
Interest rates. Expect things will gradually creep up because the economy is getting better and inflation expectations are fairly subdued at just around 2%. Flight to quality has been in the US market will gradually erode or just disappear. This will cause a natural rise in yields.
DON'T BUY
Shorting US 2 and 10 bonds after European crisis winds down? The risk is that yields continue to go down. For an individual to short the bond market is very difficult. To do that you might have to use an ETF, which can be really leveraged. Very risky and complicated for an individual.
SELL
Real Return Bond ETFs? Yield on real return bonds is almost 0. You should get a return of 2% over inflation. If you own them, he would sell. Returns have been fantastic. If nominal yields rise and inflation expectations stay the same, these will sell off in price substantially.
BUY
How risky are BBB rated bonds such as Calloway Real Estate (CWT.UN-T) or First Capital Realty (FCR-T)? Likes these 2 credits particularly. REIT sector has had a really good run and is still a comfortable sector to be in on the equity side. Dividends are well protected and interest payments are even better protected as they get paid out before the dividends.
SELL
Coupon, province of Ontario bond due March 8/23? This is an interest payment that has been detached from a regular bond. Very volatile instrument and has had a tremendous run in the last 2 years. He would be tempted to sell. For them to continue as well, interest rates would have to go down another full percent.
COMMENT
Investment for a fixed income portion of an RRSP in today's low interest environment? With be allocation and duration of investments? #1 He would build a portfolio using conventional interest paying instruments. He likes 1-10 year maturities. GIC's for 1-5 (yielding more than almost all bonds). Investment grade corporates for the 6-10 year term. #2 He would look for short-term (under 5 years) corporate strip bonds and for longer-term would look for provincial strips, 6-10 years.
COMMENT
10-year bond ladder with a minimum bond rating of BBB. Maximum percentage allotted to each credit and/or sector? Would put no more than 10% in any one credit or 10% in any one particular sector of the economy.
DON'T BUY
Floating Rate Bond ETF such as HFR-T or XFR-T in anticipation of rising interest rates? Not a good place to put your money. Also it does not appear as though short term interest rates will be rising anytime soon.
PAST TOP PICK

(Top Short May 19/11. Down 8.3%.) Short the US 10 Yr bonds @ 3.12%. Didn't foresee the calamity in Europe.

COMMENT
Italian 10 year bonds? He has a very good outlook on Italy because he doesn't buy a lot of the criticism that they are coming under. 7th largest economy globally. 4th largest gold reserves globally. It runs a primary surplus. High risk transaction because you have the value of the bond plus the value of the euro versus the Cdn $. If you have a speculative inclination, this is a good value.
COMMENT
$20,000 bond coming due on an 8-year ladder. Should he renew at 4% or go shorter? He thinks you should keep the ladder intact. 4% is a reasonable rate in 82% inflation world.
COMMENT
Markets. Has become marginally more positive on risk assets over the last couple of months. European sovereign debt spreads have come in a lot, which is a positive change underlying the markets. There is now more noise out of the US Fed about low interest rates continuing for 2 1/2 more years.
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