Exxon Mobil (XOM)

(Top Pick Jan 8/15, Down 11.52%) And the US$ has gone up. His model price is only $54, but this is the lowest valuation they have in his database back to 1995. It has never been this cheap. It pays a nice dividend and he still owns it. He thinks it is a nice name to own. The best balance sheet and management in the industry.

No one knows what is going to happen with oil. There is an oversupply of oil and the demand is not going to grow very quickly. Will there be an event that causes the price to go up? Seems unlikely. He is zero weighted in energy.

(A Top Pick Dec 3/14. Down 18.13%.) The model price is $73, a negative 5% from today’s price. This is still the best run company in the world. You’re picking this up at a nice price and it gives you a good yield of 3.8%.

He likes this at this time. They had great numbers last week. Very few energy companies are showing good numbers. Their downstream operation is clearly making up for what they are losing on the production side. A good, safe, long term hold. Good yield.

(Top Pick Oct 14/14, Down 6.91%) He recommends buying it. Since 1995 you could only buy this stock once since then. Take advantage. Put it in your portfolio for 5 years and you will be very happy.

He owned the energy space and got stopped out of every single position except for this one. He thinks oil goes lower, down to the $45-$50 area. Something tells him they don’t believe in this recent rally because they have not done a single deal. Thinks they are waiting for the 3^rd shoe to drop, and then we might see them active. Had a great discovery off the coast of South America. They are the best in this tough industry.

Energy tends to do well from February 25 until May 9, which is where we are now. However, we have seen a pickup in energy, so what he has done is to put a trailing stop loss under his position. As the position keeps moving forward, he’ll actually raise the Stop and then exit the stock if it starts to show some weakness.

One of the largest integrated oil companies, but it is hard to get excited about it. It has a wide variety of applications, so it is not going to be hurt by the commodity price as much as a pure E&P play because of the refining side. A slow grower and probably always will be. There are probably better places to be.

In the US if you are going to be in oil and gas the majors are the way to do it. This is not a bad way to wait it out.

This is heavily weighted towards natural gas. An OK Hold, but not a Buy, because there is not much growth.

The only oil name that he is ever owned. With all the carnage out there, this name has never breached any kind of Stop. The move down below $50 in oil is very destructive for a lot of different companies. There will be companies that go bankrupt and that get shut in. You end up with the survival of the fittest at the end, and this one will be one of the survivors. This all leads to higher oil prices in the future. It is going to take a while and you are going to have to be very patient.

Oil sands projects are generally very high cost. He questions where they are going to put in more money. Investors who live in the energy areas of Canada are already heavily exposed to the oil sector outside of the markets.

The best managed company over the last 30 years. At a valuation low, going back to 1994. Other companies’ pain is this company’s gain.

This gives you a great opportunity to buy one of the best run companies in the world, and at a really good valuation. His model price is $110-$111, an 18% upside. He wants large caps, certainly in the top 100 of the S&P 500. Yield of 2.92%.

Profitable at $80 oil. Better than Chevron. Go with the giant in this case. The easy oil is gone so everything being developed now has something tricky about it. Nothing is cheap any more. If the oil price comes down too low, many projects will get shelved and supply will come down and then the price will go up.