Stockchase Opinions

Richard Croft SPDR Cons Discretionary ETF XLY-N COMMENT May 04, 2017

One of the issues with the Consumer Discretionary space is what is called the “Amazon affect”, which has had such a major impact on so many retailers. He thinks you are almost better off picking a retailer that has been able to restructure itself and immunize itself as best as possible against Amazon. Coach (COH-N) would be an example. If you can afford it, he would buy Amazon as your starting point and look for a couple of retail companies that you think have an opportunity to continue.

$89.610

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TOP PICK

Consumer Discretionary has been a pretty hot sector already. Price to Book is very high at around 5. If you’ve got a growing US economy and people are now getting the benefits, that means more discretionary money will be spent on big screen TVs, etc.

BUY

XLY-US or XLF-US? January saw massive gains in the U.S., which was too much, too soon. So, he pulled back and held a lot of cash. Then, in early-Feb he bought both ETFs. He recommends buying both right now.

TOP PICK

This is a new sector for them. It holds everything from Home Depot to Netflix and is well diversified. The recent pull back offers good value, especially if you are looking to add beta to your portfolio. He likes it as a group.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 19/18, Up 5%) Discretionary spending.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 11/18, Up 17%) They hold Amazon, Home Depot, McDonalds. Amazon represents 24% of the holdings. He has stepped out to just own Amazon.
TOP PICK
Consumers are still spending money. The unemployment rate is really low. The consumer discretionary sector has been responding positively. There is an ascending triangle from the beginning of 2019 to the end and then it ticked up further. The seasonality is not until April. You don’t want to see the jobless rate tick higher.
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 07/20, Down 9%) This was the peak of the market. AMZN-Q is about a quarter of this ETF. It is important to know what is in an ETF before buying it. He exited this sector.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks Other major retail stock holdings in XLY are the Home Depot and Lowe‘s (home improvement has soared during Covid), McDonald‘s, Starbucks and Nike (strong global brands) and TJX. XLY’s MER is only 0.12%, though it pays a modest 0.67% dividend yield. Currently trading around $173, XLY is $7 off its recent highs. With summer spending expected to remain robust, XLY will likely return to those highs, but it’s probably worth waiting for at least a 5% pullback before entering, as market volatility driven by uncertain interest rates will likely endure in coming weeks. Read 3 Retail Stocks to Buy Now: Ready, Set, Shop for our full analysis.
BUY

Like financials, earnings are understated among consumer discretionary. There are some great names to pick here and earnings are way understated.