Javed Mirza iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF XGD-T BUY Apr 12, 2024

Gold stocks haven't kept up with the price of gold. He expects they will rise from the current $17 here to about $21, at which he will sell. He is an active trader. He will wait. He has faith.

While GLCC is perfect short-term play for income needs, for the long term, he'd prefer a non-covered-call strategy like XGD. Gives you growth and builds on your capital.

Large-cap gold companies, so it skews to a smaller group. Gold trying to break through all-time highs, and the companies are participating alongside. Gold exposure is very good. Gold stocks combine beta of the gold plus the stock market. Precious metal provides more of a safe haven.

Pair it with a bit of gold exposure, so you have something else in your portfolio if there's a market calamity. Gold gives your portfolio diversification.

Basket of gold miners. Underperformed TSX and spot gold since early 2020. If looking to hedge against inflation or geopolitical events, look at gold bullion instead. With mining companies, so much can go wrong.

He buys gold only when there's a trade opportunity, like now. Geopolitical risk makes gold a flight to safety trade. The US dollar will likely roll over as the Fed cuts interest rates. Gold stocks are undervalued. This ETF is diversified, led by Newmont.

XGD and ZGD are the Canadian go-to names. ZGD is equal weight, so the big caps don't run the show.

In the US, he likes GDX or GDXJ (for the juniors).

Gold remains in an uptrend, past his target of $2600. He's a big fan of the Commitment of Traders data from the Chicago Board of Trade, which comes out weekly on Fridays at 3:30 pm. Commercial traders continue to reduce exposure on the way up. Though gold can push higher, we're getting to the end of this move in the intermediate term.

We've had a good move, but he's cautious at current levels. Vulnerable to at least a near-term correction. Some charts look great, such as OR, AGI, and WPM, and he'd gravitate toward those.

Gold itself has had a big move since early 2023. He had targeted $2,600 for gold, but it hit $2,800, but there are signs that gold is moving down. If interest rates in the US move higher, it will be a big headwind for gold. He expects gold to pull back to $2,450 in 2025, or 10% down.

He's not a big buyer in the gold space. His models look for intrinsic value. Gold does not have a dividend or cashflow or a revenue stream. Lots of excitement in the space, but it can be volatile over its history. 

That being said, XGD or GDX are probably your best bets.