Richard Orrell iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF XGD-T PARTIAL BUY Jul 22, 2025

Basket of gold miners. Underperformed TSX and spot gold since early 2020. If looking to hedge against inflation or geopolitical events, look at gold bullion instead. With mining companies, so much can go wrong.

Very good option for investors interested in gold. Expecting further strength in gold prices. Very good hedge on economic weakness. Best in class ETF. Gold trend is very good. 

He buys gold only when there's a trade opportunity, like now. Geopolitical risk makes gold a flight to safety trade. The US dollar will likely roll over as the Fed cuts interest rates. Gold stocks are undervalued. This ETF is diversified, led by Newmont.

XGD and ZGD are the Canadian go-to names. ZGD is equal weight, so the big caps don't run the show.

In the US, he likes GDX or GDXJ (for the juniors).

Gold remains in an uptrend, past his target of $2600. He's a big fan of the Commitment of Traders data from the Chicago Board of Trade, which comes out weekly on Fridays at 3:30 pm. Commercial traders continue to reduce exposure on the way up. Though gold can push higher, we're getting to the end of this move in the intermediate term.

We've had a good move, but he's cautious at current levels. Vulnerable to at least a near-term correction. Some charts look great, such as OR, AGI, and WPM, and he'd gravitate toward those.

Gold itself has had a big move since early 2023. He had targeted $2,600 for gold, but it hit $2,800, but there are signs that gold is moving down. If interest rates in the US move higher, it will be a big headwind for gold. He expects gold to pull back to $2,450 in 2025, or 10% down.

He's not a big buyer in the gold space. His models look for intrinsic value. Gold does not have a dividend or cashflow or a revenue stream. Lots of excitement in the space, but it can be volatile over its history. 

That being said, XGD or GDX are probably your best bets.

Basket of gold miners in North America, 45 holdings in total, with 64% in Canada and 28% in the US. Gold has performed extremely well over the last 1-2 years, bit of a crowded trade now. Start looking elsewhere. See his Top Picks.

If you were to look at a chart for the sector over 40 years, you'd see that gold bullion's gone up but gold equities really haven't. Not great long-term investments. Ultimately, you want to trim profits.

His rule of thumb: Say your allocation to the sector for the long run is 5%, and now your position is 10%. Take half the $$ out and deploy it somewhere else. Now you're back at 5%. Keep doing that every time it doubles. You'll never get rich doing that, but it's all about risk management.