Stock price when the opinion was issued
We continue to like TMX group. They should continue to benefit in an uptrending market and from a valuation persepctive, given the stability and steady growth, we don't view the 23X P/E as particularly 'challenging'. If a bit more deal activity comes back in the New Year, TMX should see an extra tailwind as well. For entry price, we think something in the range of low to mid-40's here makes sense.
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Fingers in a lot of stock-exchange pies. Companies pay to keep stocks listed. Fees from trading activity, which has been fast and furious. Options market has been even more frenetic. Also has sticky recurring revenue businesses, which are less cyclical. In his dividend growers mandate. Globally diversified.
A wonderful performer in recent years. Not just the TSX, but they have businesses around the world like trading platforms and economic data/analytics, based on subscriptions, so lots of recurring revenues. Their results may move a little due to trading volumes and new listings, but TMX is so diversified that enjoy recurring high margins. The stock has been on a tear, and not cheap now. One of the best companies in Canada.
Slogan for good stock candidates: "The longer the base, the better the case." This chart had a big base for several years. Then it broke out, and look what happened. You can see this over and over again in stocks.
Moved into an uptrend, arced off aggressively. Now pulling back from being overbought, will likely retrace to somewhere near the trendline which is probably somewhere near the 200-day MA (don't expect it to hit exactly). Not a disaster at all. On the chart from Feb-April of this year, those previous buyers may sell if it breaks that level of ~$51-52. Keep an eye on that.
X has fallen from $58 to $54 over the past month, but it is still up 22% year-to-date and 25% on a one-year basis. Despite the recent negative price action, we view its overall trend as still very much intact, and we think this type of consolidation is healthy. It trades at 26X forward earnings, and we are not concerned by this recent move. We would be comfortable slowly averaging in here, or adding a new position.
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CEO is stepping down. He is glad of this as he was very disappointed in his reign. Would like to see this company get reconnected to the Canadian financial industry. He thinks it should be an absolutely integral part of the Canadian financial scene. Hopefully we’ll get someone who is more interested in growing the TMX in the context of a growing Canada. Not a great stock at this point in time to invest in and there is better value in the marketplace. The exchange world has changed. Easy money in this area was made 7-10 years ago.