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NYSE:WMT

Walmart Inc (WMT)

118.81
+0.94 (0.80%)
as of Oct 16, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
465 watching
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WAIT

Wonderful business, adds a lot of value for customers. He struggles with the valuation, given its growth profile. To get a good longer-term return, you need earnings growth and multiple expansion.

WMT, as well as COST and DOL, are very defensive havens for investors. That's bid up the shares. PE ratios for the three are all north of 40x. With just a slight moderation in the PE, the overall return will still be flat. He'd be interested on a significant pullback. Be patient.

TOP PICK

Everyone's probably shaking their head wondering why he's picking something trading at all-time highs ;)  His 12-month price target is $131. Still a decent return. He'd start a position here at $113, add more at $105, and get your final third around $100. 

Without a doubt, effectively runs the largest AI-enabled physical and digital commerce network in the whole world. What every retail aspires to be able to do. All that will just pour down to the bottom line. Yield is 0.83%.

(Analysts’ price target is $119.10)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 09/24, Up 29%)

Didn't bounce back as much as the market from that April low. But now starting to see some interest in the sector. One of the retailers that will probably best take advantage of AI. If it can get above $104 range, pretty positive.

It's a good business, don't try to get too cute with the buy price. Just pick up 2% today, and worry about your remaining 2-3% allocation later. Paying more actually confirms your idea. Never average down.

DON'T BUY

You have to look at these companies in terms of what can go wrong. If we go into a sustained, negative economic period, there's going to be a lot of hurt on a company like this. The outlook is very sunny, and his first question is what happens when it gets cloudy?

DON'T BUY

Trades at 40s forward PE, extremely overvalued (should be 20x). Avoid.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 09/24, Up 30%)

Executes really well. Don't get too many surprises, everyone understands it. Massive upside. Chart shows how it broke out of the little "step" recently. Will benefit immensely in the retail space from the adaption of AI (especially as it relates to knowing their customers' habits).

SELL

Trading at 40x forward PE. Need he say more? Extremely overvalued. Should trade closer to 20x PE. But there's a premium for safety. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

HOLD

Iconic brand, as well as scale and efficiency. You could say it's quite expensive. On the other hand, what a moat. Could very well keep chugging along without having its multiple fall. Very profitable, lots of FCF to buy back shares. Nearest competitor is TGT, which is not doing well. Perhaps TGT's loss is WMT's gain.

BUY

They trade at 40x PE because they are capturing market share and traffic, and have earnings and revenues growth. Their biggest risk is in groceries from Amazon who want to build out that business. WMT price momentum will continue until there's a weak quarter.

DON'T BUY

It's too expensive considering its growth. A good company, but 55% of their business is low-margin groceries.

BUY
Research based on Bob Lang of Explosiveoptions.net

Has been rangebound within $93-100, but is digesting after a big move up after April. The Chaykin Money Flow remains positive. The MACD line made a bullish crossover Lang suggests buying ahead of next month's report. Lang targets $105-110 and he agrees.

BUY

Hard not to like. Great job on e-commerce, after having lagged. Now has a lovely hybrid model of in-store and online. Very price competitive. Well-positioned structurally for the long term. Massive importer of goods, so tariffs are a pressure. Valuation's not cheap, but it never is. Buy and forget about it.

Unspecified

It is well run and the business should do well. Given tariffs, shipping costs, and the potential decline of the U.S. dollar, profitability may go down. It is buying back stock but he is not waiting for a disconnect. At 30X earnings it is quite expensive.

COMMENT
Should Walmart "eat the tariffs," as Trump says?

It would be terrific if Walmart operated as a charity by subsidizing its customers. Problem is retailers have incredibly low profit margins to begin with. Also, they couldn't plan ahead, but nobody knew these tariffs were coming. When they did know, they did their best shifting to sourcing products  from countries that had the lowest tariffs. But you can't change your entire supply chain overnight. Given their huge scale, WMT negotiate the best deal with their suppliers, and have tried not to raise prices that much for customers. They will certainly lose money on some products. Walmart should be the last company on Earth to be singled out for profiteering. 

COMMENT
Should Walmart "eat the tariffs," as Trump says?

It would be terrific if Walmart operated as a charity by subsidizing its customers. Problem is retailers have incredibly low profit margins to begin with. Also, they couldn't plan ahead, but nobody knew these tariffs were coming. When they did know, they did their best shifting to sourcing products  from countries that had the lowest tariffs. But you can't change your entire supply chain overnight. Given their huge scale, WMT negotiate the best deal with their suppliers, and have tried not to raise prices that much for customers. They will certainly lose money on some products. Walmart should be the last company on Earth to be singled out for profiteering. 

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