Opinions
Kevin Burkett
Whitecap Resources
WCP-T
DON'T BUY
May 26, 2021
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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If you assume oil prices go up, and assume they all execute well, which is the buy right now? He likes the upfront dividend. VRN is cheapest on price and financial metrics. Production outlook posted a few days ago is quite positive.
Not sure if the easiest thesis is to buy energy right now with Trump trying to attack the price of oil. But within the group, VRN is a name that works pretty well.
Here, he can look at support on the chart and know that it's real because we know about tariffs and the merger with VRN. He needs a bounce off support; if it doesn't bounce, and goes below support, then you have a problem and don't want to own. If it does bounce, then you have a target of between $11-12.
Concerns about tariffs are already built into the price, and that's why it's down.
Has looked at this for a long time. Started a new position due to selloff on the merger with VRN. Really likes Canadian oil & gas long term, tariffs notwithstanding.
Fly in the ointment is our new prime minister, Mr. Carney, who continues to be anti-oil and -gas. Paradoxical to him, given Canada's absolutely superb endowment of oil & gas resources and related technology. Perplexing that political leadership of Canada doesn't understand the energy patch business case when we have lots to sell to lots of willing partners.
Top mid-cap name, high dividend yield, aggressive product growth. Ramping up production, which will offer strong FCF. But capital spending is rising as a result. Scores 10/10 on value, 8/10 on fundamentals. Analysts seeing potential upside of 47%. Healthy dividend of ~8%.
He likes the WCP-Veren deal. Both were already decent companies, but together will enjoy synergy from cost savings. It will become the 4th-largest light oil producer in Canada. Management knows what it's doing, valuation good. Bigger companies here tend to enjoy a multiple increase. Veren shareholder will receive the WCP dividend, a big increase for them. The combined company will do pretty well.
WCP has a book value yield of 104.9% and an earnings yield of 12.8%, both good, while it pays a 7.8% dividend yield based on a decent 53.65% payout ratio, and trades at a low 6.88x PE. Compare that to CNQ's 15.33x and Suncor's 11.6x. The street likes the deal, giving WCP an average price target of $13.36, or 42% higher, based on six buys and one hold. Obviously, the street gives the merger a thumbs up, with three analysts assigning an average price target of $13.00, including one upgrade.
Damaged business model. Key risk is where you see energy price volatility, the business model doesn't make sense. It does make sense in the mid-$60 range, where we are now, which is why people are picking it up. But he favours TOU.