Opinions
Kevin Burkett
Whitecap Resources
WCP-T
DON'T BUY
May 26, 2021
Stock price when the opinion was issued
You might be interested:
Here, he can look at support on the chart and know that it's real because we know about tariffs and the merger with VRN. He needs a bounce off support; if it doesn't bounce, and goes below support, then you have a problem and don't want to own. If it does bounce, then you have a target of between $11-12.
Concerns about tariffs are already built into the price, and that's why it's down.
Has looked at this for a long time. Started a new position due to selloff on the merger with VRN. Really likes Canadian oil & gas long term, tariffs notwithstanding.
Fly in the ointment is our new prime minister, Mr. Carney, who continues to be anti-oil and -gas. Paradoxical to him, given Canada's absolutely superb endowment of oil & gas resources and related technology. Perplexing that political leadership of Canada doesn't understand the energy patch business case when we have lots to sell to lots of willing partners.
Top mid-cap name, high dividend yield, aggressive product growth. Ramping up production, which will offer strong FCF. But capital spending is rising as a result. Scores 10/10 on value, 8/10 on fundamentals. Analysts seeing potential upside of 47%. Healthy dividend of ~8%.
He likes the WCP-Veren deal. Both were already decent companies, but together will enjoy synergy from cost savings. It will become the 4th-largest light oil producer in Canada. Management knows what it's doing, valuation good. Bigger companies here tend to enjoy a multiple increase. Veren shareholder will receive the WCP dividend, a big increase for them. The combined company will do pretty well.
WCP has a book value yield of 104.9% and an earnings yield of 12.8%, both good, while it pays a 7.8% dividend yield based on a decent 53.65% payout ratio, and trades at a low 6.88x PE. Compare that to CNQ's 15.33x and Suncor's 11.6x. The street likes the deal, giving WCP an average price target of $13.36, or 42% higher, based on six buys and one hold. Obviously, the street gives the merger a thumbs up, with three analysts assigning an average price target of $13.00, including one upgrade.
Broke below the March low, an indication that it's going lower. Barring a dramatic reversal in the price of natural gas, which it's tilted more towards, it's probing lower. Going back on a 3-year chart, no place to hang your hat yet.
Lots of damage in last 2 days. There's a lot of value there, but you have to wait to see where to step in. All of energy will be wait and see.
Profitable around $51, so you have about $6 of margin right now. Growing 3-5% per year. Paying down debt, balance sheet extremely strong. Dividends are sustainable down to $52. Wouldn't be surprised if they dialed down capex, which makes the dividend even more secure. Montney assets are significantly better than the market appreciates. Good natural gas weight. Yield is 9.3%.
Damaged business model. Key risk is where you see energy price volatility, the business model doesn't make sense. It does make sense in the mid-$60 range, where we are now, which is why people are picking it up. But he favours TOU.