Stockchase Insights Visa Inc. V-N BUY ON WEAKNESS Sep 27, 2024

Though he's not a fundamental analyst, he can offer a small insight into the credit industry. There's been a lot of talk that's there's probably going to be some reason for the Fed to ease, and that's because the economy is probably slowing down. Purchases will be down, so Visa and the like will suffer.

That's probably why it's stopped moving up to the same degree as the S&P 500. Looking at the chart, you can see the consolidation pattern; as long as the pattern doesn't break, you're OK. Don't assume anything. If it breaks to the upside, you want to be a longer-term owner. But it could also break to the downside, possibly for the fundamental reason mentioned above. So you need to be cautious on this one. The consolidation could be a warning sign.

He owns Mastercard but they both offer low risk and attractive returns. Visa and MC are a duopoly. Long term, Visa has done better than lately but it shows growing its top line by 10 to 12%. 

It is a great company and the key benefit lies in the transition from cash to credit. They are adding more add-on services but it has under-performed the S&P 500 for the past few years. It is stable but not accelerating so there are probably better opportunities elsewhere.

Great business, growing secularly. Dominant position in a tight oligopoly. Domestic (40%) and overseas (60%). Expects earnings to continue to compound at ~12-14% pace over coming several years. Competitive moat means not likely to be disrupted. 

Has pulled back about 8%, while equity market is making new highs. One to buy the dip. At ~27x PE, trades at small discount to MA right now. MA is growing faster, around 15%. But trades at 32-33x PE. 

He'd be fine with buying either one or both for the very long term.

Is up only 8% this year, but always buy this on weakness.

Still attractive. Continues to average up into the position. Despite inflation, still gets to participate in the growth of commerce.

To succeed, you have to do the underlying, to sell it at your level, or else you will buy it back at a higher price. A Canadian writing a covered call on a US stock that income treatment is a capital gain, which is good.

Drifting sideways between $325-375 since beginning of this year. Range-bound, not clear if it wants to go up or down. Consumer spending has been resilient, but he's keeping an eye on it. What happens with consumer spending is critical to this name.

Has done so well, he took some money off the table as part of good risk management. Long-term chart's performed very well. The kind of name you want in your portfolio. Continues to perform.

Likes the long-term secular growth. 50% of world's transactions are still in cash. Seeing more cross-border transactions and leisure travel. Few competitors. Underperformed S&P since April, but still OK. Lots of $$ is chasing tech, but this name's up 27% last 12 months. 28x PE for 13-15% growth, a bit of a premium. Still likes.