Chris Blumas Visa Inc. V-N TOP PICK Jun 18, 2024

Great business. Benefits from online shopping and move to cashless. Trades at a premium valuation, so good news already built in. Best time to buy a blue-chip like this is on a market correction. Always regulatory risk, but Canada putting a cap on interest rates would not materially affect this name.

There is lots of growth internationally. The banks take on the risks in using the cards. It has become too big but that can change. The loyalty programs really help in the credit card business but there is a possibility that they may not be used as much in the future.

Very good performer, but always attracts a very high premium multiple. Seen as part of an oligopoly in the payments space. If there's a downtick in the economy, price and/or volume of goods would come down; there would be less "traffic" on the Visa toll road. In a recession, rather than people putting all purchases on plastic, they tend to be more cautious and spend less overall. So, potentially lower earnings.

Brand is fantastic, with very high ROIC. If it ever got cheap enough, he'd consider it. 

Undisputed champ, leaving fintech and MA in the dust. Gives you exposure to the financial sector. Outperforming the S&P financial sector by ~10%. Q1 saw 8% transaction growth. Cautious consumer spending could be a potential risk, though US consumer remains strong. E-commerce and travel spending could push volumes higher in 2025-26.

It's a hold for her, not in a rush to add more.

Visa and Mastercard both have no credit risk and are doing incredibly well.

Down because everything's down. Concern that in an economic slowdown people will be slower to pay off credit cards, and there will be less travel. Doesn't have the credit risks that banks do. 

His favourite for quite a few years, multiple a few points cheaper than MA. Debit card business growing faster than MA. Greater European and international tentacles.

Will always trade at a premium because the space has very few competitors. Right now, market is trading on news not fundamentals. Buy now and you'll be happy 6-24 months out. Economic slowdown will affect consumer. Who knows what tariffs will look like down the road?

12-month price target of $380. Rolled over on all the chatter about recession and slower growth. January earnings were great, beating on top and bottom; raised guidance. He owns MA instead, mainly due to slightly better upside than V's 16-17%.

Reliable name. Vast network, trusted brand, unmatched scale. Move from cash to digital payments. Consumer spending remains pretty solid in US. Cross-border transactions remain strong. Pretty capital light, which means very strong free cashflows. About 13% annual growth rate, paying a slight premium for the name. 

Recently bounced off 200-day MA very nicely, so it's a pretty good technical setup going forward. Yield is 0.68%.