Opinions
Jamie Murray 
UnitedHealth Group Inc
UNH-N
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Feb 25, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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A few weeks ago they warned they wouldn't meet their numbers. Today, they said they wouldn't meet their guidance. US insurance is changing with regulatory policy demands and medical loss ratios are staying high as people are using their plans more and more as an echo of Covid. The problem is UNH's concentration in the Medicare/Medicaid space
Under lots of pressure. He's bought in recent weeks. Rare miss on Q1, lowered guidance. Medical loss ratios expected to be elevated for a few quarters; should recoup when premiums reprice in 2026. Recent CEO departure rattled investors further. Unconfirmed story of DOJ investigation for Medicare fraud.
Brand tarnished, but not irreparably. Not an immediate fix, but worth the wait. Long-term sustainable growth rate of 13-16%, trading at 12-13x PE. Market's overreacted, shares undervalued. Largest healthcare company in US. Healthcare sector is secularly advantaged by demographics and morbidity trends.
Medicare patient costs went through the roof. Disappointing profits, withdrew financial guidance (which scared Wall Street to death). WSJ article commented that aggressive business practices made it vulnerable to regulatory scrutiny. Medicare and Medicaid changes could mean lower revenues and higher costs.
Won't rebound anytime soon, especially with the big beautiful tax bill. Will probably go sideways.
There has been concern over paying nursing homes to not send patients to hospitals. He is not sure if this true but it raises caution. There is also concern over the U.S. trying to not pay claims. The U.S. administration is going after costs in health care and profits in PDM. There is likely more bad news coming out. After three years it should probably be OK.
It is one of the most integrated companies in U.S. health care. They thought it was very oversold so they doubled down on their position and will trend back. She is looking for 13 to 16% long term upside but doesn't consider it a buy and hold. Should be a high quality compounder.
Time will tell is they recover or not from the recent slide (shares fell by half). Their medical cost ratios have risen and we'll see if they maintain a higher level. There were fewer medical procedures during Covid, but has since increased, but also has pushed up costs for the insurers. But some issues may be temporary, including Medicare and Medicaid rates.
Yes. It was a top pick of his last spring. He doesn't think there will be much negative impact from Washington investigating their billing practices, though there remains headline risk. Fundamentals are improving, though they are paying out more for medical costs, which he hopes will normalize. It's trading below the market PE, when usually it trades above.