UberUBERBUY ON WEAKNESSAug 21, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
It has a great core business. Its rideshare and food didtribution businesses are humming along with growing cash flow. It is getting more sign-ups every year with its Uber1 memberships. Investors have been worried about Waymo and Tesla in the autonomous vehicle space and they do have better quality than Uber. However Uber has been developing partnerships with about a dozen start-up Autonomous Vehicle companies which are super impressive. We should see Uber roll out a lot of these launches over the next 12 months. Buy 53 Hold 7 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $104.70)Challenge will be competition from TSLA and Weymo. Once it reaches saturation, what can it do for its next trick? The law of diminishing returns might catch up with it. With partnerships, it can maintain its hold on pricing power. Fundamentals are good.
His one knock against the company is an ethical one -- wishes it would treat its drivers better. It should follow the model of COST.
They used it for a trade and have moved on. People are worried about impact of autonomous driving -- doesn't think the system will change all that rapidly. Autonomous cars are very expensive. Uber's model is great in that drivers bear the costs.
Reasonable valuation. Management's done a good job. If you're a long-term investor, should be a good player and survive.
Drawdown related to AI pressures on software. Looks relatively compelling, but think twice about what you're trying to get from the stock. A growthy stock, tends to be volatile. Great business, outlook looks fairly reasonable.
Can use AI to leverage benefits of its business.
UBER's sales and earnings have been improving and its outlook is decent, with sales growth of ~17% expected over the next few years and strong earnings growth. Its debt levels are creeping higher, with a debt-to-equity of 1.1 and net debt/EBITDA of 3.6X. Profit margins are improving and it generated a strong level of free cash flow over the past 12 months. Its cash position of $5.5B is strong and its valuation is OK with a forward sales multiple of 2.2X and forward earnings of 30.5X. We feel that the momentum has shifted for UBER and it is now picking up momentum in its earnings leverage. We feel that if sales and earnings growth continue to grow as expected in the coming years that this name can perform quite well.
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