TC EnergyTRP.TOWAITDec 17, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 25, 2026. Market Open.
Its growth is in the 7 to 8% range. It has a huge backlog of projects and is adding more. Has superior management which has started an AI initiative for optimizing its pipeline. His expectation of natural gas prices is that they will go nowhere in North America. Natural gas is above the 5 year storage levels and a milder winter is expected. It needs more liquification facilities in Western Canada.
Pulled down toward the 200-day MA, so an opportunity to pick up shares. RSI is down around 29, indicating it's oversold. Nice, steady name with pretty low beta (half that of the TSX). For the conservative, dividend part of your portfolio. Yield is 4% and safe, expected to increase over coming years.
Pipeline names serve an important need in a portfolio for those who are income-focused. Sector's been hot, valuations have come up dramatically. If you own, continue to hold. Growth outlook quite strong.
Pipelines will definitely benefit from the need for power for AI. But they can't ship more than is already allocated, so they don't get as much operating leverage as some other companies.
Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities for safety, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not). This name will give you a good dividend and safety. You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
Possible deal with Iran caused similar price action across the whole complex. The whole space was at a high.
Both an oil play and an energy infrastructure play. Project backlog of $8B (with ~90% sanctioned, and another $12B being discussed) looks very visible. Great company. Trades at premium of 20x PE for 5% growth.
Better places for new $$.
His preference is TRP -- it has the gas assets, whereas SOBO has the oil assets. Spinoff happened because TRP wanted to lose the discount of oil. Negative sentiment on oil had hurt the multiple, while investor view on nat gas was a lot more positive.
In the space, his ranking is ENB at #1, then PPL, then TRP. Valuations are quite strong. Of the ways he invests for clients, the "income bucket" has performed so well recently that it has the fewest number of Buys of the core "buckets" that he follows. Due to the outlook for interest rates being to go down, income names have been bid up in advance of that. Therefore, valuations have become a bit rich.
Watch and wait -- could be some volatility and an opportunity to pick it up a bit lower. He'd look to try to get it around 10x cashflow, and it's north of 11x right now.