Stockchase Opinions

Zachary Curry Tourmaline Oil Corp TOU-T PAST TOP PICK Sep 18, 2024

(A Top Pick Aug 09/23, Down 10%)

Nat gas prices still under pressure. Management and structure are set up for success, even in this environment. Minimal debt, special dividends. Management owns lots of shares. CREW acquisition cashflow-positive right away. Long-term thinkers.

$59.110

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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BUY
Impact of a 25% US tariff

He surmises that Trump's bark is bigger than his bite; there's a lot of cooperation between Canada and the US. The tariffs, if they open, won't last long, because they won't benefit the US (or Canada). He's bullish nat gas for the next 3-4 years. TOU has great management.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 06/24, Up 28%)

Sold last year to invest in an energy producer with more upside. Might be largest nat gas producer in Canada. Gushes cashflow. If you're bullish on nat gas, no reason not to own this name.

BUY

Short-term this is fine, and really likes it long term. Has infrastructure, but has spun it off, natural gas and condensate businesses. We'll see about gas prices. Tariffs could hold impact, but LNG Canada will be larger.

BUY

Great margins and deep inventory to sell into many markets. Not growing as much as before, but stable. Offers a moderate return. A good natural gas producer.

TRADE
Hits $70, then back down to low $60s.

Just cut and paste the chart from A to B, expecting more of the same. Liked it below $60; he trims between $70-75. Thinks oil and gas prices will generally be range-bound for the next year or two, and so will this kind of stock. Well run. Buy dips, don't chase strength.

Unspecified

It is the industry leader for natural gas production with decades of inventories and great margins. It is a stable business but not growing as fast as in the past at 6 to 7%. He prefers mid-streamers, pipelines and service companies, to producers. The mid-streamers have tended to give more ROE.

BUY

Cold winter weather has been good for nat gas prices. Wild card is AI demand -- what's the sustainable fuel that can keep data centres running 24/7? It's natural gas. Over the next few years, a fortune will be spent building data centres. Hopefully, with new administration in Canada, this name can benefit from the added infrastructure.

Earnings this week, he expects big increase to special dividend. Nice place to collect a growing income stream.

WEAK BUY

Her portfolio is quite concentrated; she'd add this if she could. Low-cost producer. Will need to see what's happening with egress of nat gas in Canada, which could bode well for nat gas prices and production. She owns ARX.

DON'T BUY

Unfortunately, fatality overnight; will have only a short-term impact, weak today. Despite the name, a natural gas company. Trades at highest premium relative to peers. Management and resource depth are solid. Backdrop is bullish for Canadian natural gas producers, but he'd prefer other names. 

WEAK BUY

He's a long-term natural gas bull; it's the fuel of the future, and LNG Canada is about to start. TOU has a good CEO and good inventory and pays a high dividend. That said, TOU is not his favourite nat gas stock though holds a lot of shares. TOU is more about dividends. TOU buys a lot of companies which creates an overhang and doesn't allow the share price to perform as well, so it lags its nat gas peers.