Stockchase Opinions

Norman Levine Toyota TM-N BUY Nov 08, 2019

Global auto makers are behaving better right now and the Japanese market is improving. He would support an investor buying here.
$144.190

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Automotive
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DON'T BUY

He used to own a lot of Ford and GM. Auto sales have not really increased since the 1990s. Now with the disruptive forces of Uber and Lyft, the space is that much more challenging. Transport is changing. Owning a car is not always part of the assets one owns anymore.

DON'T BUY
Fuel cells for cars Fuel cells have never been economical for carmakers, though they have been around for 30+ years. Toyota and other carmakers are still dabbling with it, because batteries on the e-car side are reaching their limits. Customers demand range. Toyota and the car sector are slumping globally--the economy is slow.
DON'T BUY
They make great cars. He does not like the space. With the exception of China, auto sales have been flat for 20 years. There will be some winners but it is too early to speculate on which will be the winners. If you have to be in this sector, it is a good car maker.
HOLD
We are seeing some green shoots in auto dealers over the last few weeks. TM-N offers both Gas and Electric vehicles. For auto sales you have to understand 2021 – how many layoffs are permanent. He thinks auto sales will continue to decrease over the next two to three years. More auto companies may be more open to mergers in the next 5 years. TM-N is in the top half of auto names. He has owned it before in his dividend portfolio.
BUY
TM vs. GM vs. TSLA

Depends on your risk tolerance. He's been looking at GM recently, but hasn't taken any action. Really good recent quarter, will be pressure on financing side of the business. Targets are pretty optimistic. TM is a safer bet for the next year or so; it's a giant company with improving profits, uncertainty on EV strategy is not a short-term game-changer. TSLA is his favourite EV play in the auto-making space. TSLA has already won the EV race, especially as to vertical integration.

BUY

Didn't rush to build EVs the way others did, and this will help in the long run. In general, EVs are not selling well, inventories are building up, and infrastructure isn't yet there. Hybrid option has the most mileage longevity, and Toyota seems to be going that route, which is the most prudent approach. Great cars, huge company. Safe for a 3-5 year hold.

DON'T BUY

Made its bed on hybrids vs. EVs. Who knows where the technology will be 10 years from now? Car companies are very capital intensive, so earnings get badly impacted in a slowdown. Not great value. He owns RACE.

BUY

Business performing well. Has taken a measured approach to EV adoption. Slowly getting into EV sales, but doing so strategically. Excellent cars that last a long time. Brand name very strong in North America. 

DON'T BUY

Auto sector mixed. Supply issues. Peaked in March, now lower highs and lows. Downward trend suggests traders selling the rallies. Just because a group moves in a certain direction, doesn't mean everything does at the same time.