Ford Motor (F-N)

He models $15.86, some upside, and trading at book value (his metrics). It's a cyclical and we're heading into a recession. He wants to see the dividend cut. The macro needs to get better, but would buy after a recession. Wrong time now.

A $12 stock that pays a 5% yield. Don't own auto stocks in a recession, but they will own the e-pick-up market. So, this won't become a Musk vs. Ford scenario, but a Musk AND Ford market.

He isn't playing in this space now. Car sales have been a lot more resilient than many expected. Ford just said it will increase production in 2023, adding lines. But the US Fed said today there will likely be more rate hikes which will pressure car sales. Be careful. Either trim or watch.

He's holding the CEO's feet to the fire, because the CEO guaranteed to him that he will right his company's ship this quarter.

Upheaval in the auto industry. Combustion transition to EV is massively expensive. Probably won't have free cashflow for the next decade. Massive spend to stay relevant is a huge negative. Look for a more stable earnings profile.

$13 today but also in 1997, so shares have gone up and down. That's 25 years of nowhere at at time when carmakers see the best decade in a while. Maybe they got complacent, being an old company. That said, they can capture EV market share from Tesla, so this is probably Ford's last weak quarter in a while. 

It's too early to invest in Ford, too early in this turnaround.

It will take CEO Farley a while to turn this around. Cost issues are nothing new. They cut jobs in Europe and will streamline production there to operate more like the U.S. or South American operations. Ford has been trading at a discount to GM because of this. Ford, though, has outperformed GM a lot because their EV story is very exciting.

Nervous about this. He will sell if their next quarter falls short. It's time that Ford got it right.