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Gavin Graham Canadian Pacific Ships TEU-T HOLD Aug 08, 2005

There are lots of take over rumours and the share price has moved up. Quite a good operating business. They had some accounting difficulties in depreciating their containers properly. Also now have an Asian exposure.

Gavin Graham

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$22.400

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation

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SELL

Ran up on rumours of a takeover. Still not convinced they have sorted out all their tax problems. Would consider selling at this price.

WEAK BUY

Has had a bit of a bounce back from the disaster it had with their accounting problems, missed profits, etc. Not the most exciting company in the world. Capacity in shipping is growing, but most of their ships may be in the wrong ocean!

TOP PICK

Had some extraordinary misfortunes last year, a software glitch and it's trans-Atlantic business, it's great strength, and everybody was gung ho over China/Pacific traffic. One of the world's largest shippers and just recently there has been consolidation at the big end of the market and this is a possible candidate for someone. Management changes are being made.

BUY

Looking at the mean estimates, he has a model price of $28. It should hit its bottom around $20.

WEAK BUY

Beacme pretty interesting when it was in the mid-teens. The knock against them is that they have smaller container ships and they are mostly Atlantic where the most lucrative routes are in the Pacific. Not as compelling at these levels. It's OK but wouldn't want it as a core holding.

WEAK BUY

A lot of ships are being built and rates will drop with competition.

DON'T BUY

Intuitively, it should be a good story because of the bottlenecks in getting goods moved. The trouble is they haven't executed well in the past.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 25/05. Down 12.5%.) There has been a little bit of a lull in the shiping area. Not main China/Asia type traffic, but is Atlantic. They are making expansions on their Australian routes. Safe at this level. Gives a $2 dividend. Could be a takeover target.

WEAK BUY

There's a large merger of shipping companies in Europe. This stock has moved up strongly on takeover news. Speculative. The risk to this sector is that a whole lot of new tonnage is being brought on. Shipping rates went up when there wasn't a lot of tonnage available, but this is starting to correct.

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Gavin Graham Canadian Pacific Ships TEU-T HOLD Aug 08, 2005

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