Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)

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9 watching

BUY

The sector will trade on the underlying commodity price. It will also trade on their ability to translate their assets into production. Feels they have recently good chance of doing that. Be prepared for a lot of volatility.

DON'T BUY

Doesn't understand this company. They make acquisitions. They don't hedge. Heavy exposure in natural gas. Distribution cut is coming.

WAIT

Thinks the payout ratio is greater than 100%. Has a really good asset base. It will be a name he comes back to as a gas name for the 2008 gas market.

BUY

Gas. Great value here. Have already lowered the distribution and are about a 70% payout ratio. Pays about a 17% yield. Great long-term value. A lot of production they are holding back, waiting for higher prices.

SELL

Have had some production and cash flow problems. Heavier debt load and shorter reserve life. Would move into higher quality like Bonavista (BNP.UN-T), Focus (FET.UN-T) or Vermilion (VET.UN-T) which will be survivors when they become taxable in 2011.

SELL

Oil/gas income trusts in Canada are going to have a really tough time. The government’s proposed changes will make their lives very difficult. Distributions are not sustainable. The game is over for them.

BUY

A gassy trust that has got hit. Gas prices have probably already bottomed and are coming back. Good entry point if you like the longer term outlook for gas.

SELL

In the middle of an offering right now.

DON'T BUY

Very gas weighted. Prefers trusts with lower payout ratios and lower debt.

BUY

Focused on the deeper drilling. Better rigs with higher utilisation rates. Tend to be more gas focused so could have some slippage in day rates in a warm winter. Have somewhat higher financial leverage then he likes.

HOLD

In the middle of the pack. Decent. Focused on tight gas resources which gives them a certain amount of stability and sustainability.

HOLD

Payout ratio is about 90%. This is basically 100% gas. There is a definite possibility of a distribution cut and it will be 10% to 15%. This would still give you 14% distribution.

TRADE

There may be a possible cut in distribution. Recommends that you take a look at the last quarter results and come to your own conclusion.

BUY

With the drop in price, it pays about 15% yield. 85% gas which is why it is off. Management is sharp. Have a lot of production behind pipe. As a trade, you can sell in February.

WAIT

Produces about 25,000 barrels a day equivalent, 80% gas. Made a number of acquisitions that the market is questioning. A nice core name if you are interested in gas. Likes this company. Wait. Over the next couple of months there will be some lower points in gas prices.

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Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)