Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)

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DON'T BUY

A bit of a risk with this stock. It is heavily weighted in natural gas. The company just bought Red Sky( this expert has a position in Red Sky)Would not recommend this stock in present gas environment. If looking for a gas stock, prefers Fairborn and Enerplus.

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WATCH

Spectacular management team. Gas weighted. Thinks there will be a chance to buy cheaper. Great assets. Look for it to fall another couple of dollars.

BUY

Gas oriented. Last quarter was very slightly disappointing in production. Not a lot of growth, but given that you are getting a 10% plus yield, you are getting a 15/20% return. Not a bad spot.

BUY

It has some good assets which are concentrated in the Kaybob area of Alberta. Thinks they will do very well. The most recent softness in the price is because of concerns in meeting their numbers but he feels they have a good chance of reaching their production numbers.

WEAK BUY

Only owns it in his funds that require it because they track indexes. A gas weighted trust and its performance has been phenomenal, due to the high price of natural gas. Prefers other gas names.

COMMENT

Paying about 13%. Had a great run. Has gotten fairly expensive over the last little while. Likes the assets in the company. Will continue to do reasonably well. If you own, take some profits.

BUY

Outlook for natural gas is very good. About 75/80% natural gas. Has a good reserve.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 29/05 Up 34%.) Excellent company. Is a spinoff from Paramount (POU-T) which owns 15%. High quality properties in the Kaybob area. Will produce fairly prolificly for a long period of time. Likes the quality of the properties. Expensive at the moment.

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TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 29/05. Up 14%.) Incoporates 2 main areas, 70% of the assets in the Kaybob area and the rest in Martin Hills. Kaybob has very high quality assets.

BUY

Has a relatively short reserve life with an index of around 7 years. A well run trust. Yield right now is around 11%. You are being paid a bit of a premium to compensate for the short reserve life.

TOP PICK

A spin off from Paramoun Energy Trust. A high quality group of assets. Well managed and management owns about 50%. Still has some room to move.

TOP PICK

A spin out from Paramount Resources (POU-T). Has 2 main properties, one in the Kaybob area (about 80% of its production) and the other in the Martin Hills area.

BUY

Typically, when trusts first come out, they rally and then settle back. Fundamentally doesn't see anything wrong with it. Has a lot of reserves, reasonable cost structure, low payout ratio.

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Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)