Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)

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9 watching

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Almost 80% of its production is gas weighted. Produces about 25,000 barrels equivalent a day. Buy when there is softness in the gas market.

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BUY

Can't see any more distribution cuts. Great management team. A good way to play rebounding gas. Good level.

HOLD

Uptrend was violated in late 2005. It had a classic spike. Basically, the bull is over. It is now trying to build a base. Don't let it go below its low.

COMMENT

8% gas. 13% yield. All bets are off regarding distribution cuts. Doesn't think there is much risk to the underlying trust however. Good management.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 6/06. Down 2.5%.) 83% gas. Lowered the distribution as expected, but at this price your getting 15% which is attractive. In addition, when gas goes up, you get a capital gain.

BUY

A very good gas position. The bulk of its assets are in the Cabob, central Alberta area which is a very prolific area. Good management.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 26/06. Down 4%.) A gas based trust. Cut their distribution like a lot of the gas trusts. At this price, distributions are 15%. A little bit worried about storage levels on gas. Would still hold.

BUY

Gas is very cheap on a relative base and historically and is likely to go higher. Good entry point for the long-term but in the near term, would prefer a non-income trust gas such as Compton (CMT-T). Gas trusts are propped up by yield. This one is a spectacularly well run company.

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 6/05. Down 5.5%.) A very high gas weighted trust. Slightly cut its distributions last week but still pays $2.40. If they don't pay out a high distribution, they end up paying tax on it. A 15% yield and a good long-term outlook.

BUY

A very well managed trust with good underlying assets. They are right on the cusp in terms of payout ratio, capital efficiency and sustainability of their distribution. A great buy.

BUY

Gas weighted. They have some of the best metrics in the business. Getting 57 BOE’s per well versus 27 industry average. Good production, good balance sheet. Relatively low payout ratio.

WAIT

Highly gas weighted. This trust is higher taxable so have to pay out a higher percentage of their operating cash flow. With gas where it currently is, doesn't like the prospects in the short-term, but longer term, as gas prices firm, this is one you could go into.

WEAK BUY

A good trust to own if you are keen on natural gas. Payout ratio is a little higher than what he likes.

TOP PICK

Trilogy Energy is a spinoff of Paramount Resources and still 19.9% owned. The trust is 80% gas. Paying out 80% of their cash flow. High pay out ratio is due to tax problems. They are 34% hedged. Yield is 15%and 25% return . Buy below $19.00. He is still buying.

HOLD

Triology Energy is late getting their 4th quarter results out or first annual report This expert does not seem concerned and says that only 60% of the energy trusts have reported at this point. Triology has a very interesting asset base. Caution-the distributions are highly taxable and they have to maintain a high payout ratio because of the taxability within the entity. Current rate of distribution is at risk in a weak gas market. They are prepared to overlook this because they like the asset base and are bullish on gas 9 months from now.

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Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)