Opinions
Christine Poole
Toronto-Dominion Bank
TD-T
PAST TOP PICK
Sep 11, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Price targets give an illusion of precision that doesn't really exist, so his firm doesn't do them. If they own a stock, safe to say their target is "higher".
Likes personal and commercial business in Canada. US trouble is behind them, though they'll need to earn their way out of the regulatory doghouse. And they will. Investor Day on September 29 should shed light on medium-term strategy. Expects they can hit their aspirational 7+% EPS growth.
Took partial profits about 2 months ago, after massive re-rating.
The question asked the guest to compare the two with a view to buying one of them. She prefers Royal Bank right now. It just delivered record results and is growing at 10% year over year. TD has gone through a rough patch and is re-structuring which is eating into profits. She doesn't think Royal Bank will split.
The Canadian bank charts look similar. TD has seen a nice bounce since April, despite being the bank with the most problems and cannot grow in the US. A rising tide lifts all boats/banks. He got rid of it to buy BMO, which is a much-better run bank, maybe a little too soon. He is bullish Canadian banks, overall as the economy picks up. The bargain price for TD is over, but it will take time to return to its premium valuation. Prefers Royal and National banks.
Look at beginning of 2022 on the chart -- stock recently broke through that level. So you'll get some new buyers and less resistance. Historically, financials have some pretty big upside this time of year. If you own, no reason to sell. If you're overweight, look to trim (perhaps in December).
Lots of concern for banks, but the market doesn't seem to see it. Follow the market and don't overthink it too much.
(A Top Pick September 12, 2017. Up 23%). This is now trading at record levels even though the bank itself has not done that well this year. The stock was knocked down in the summer because of sales practice issues but has fully recovered. It has led the big 6 banks this year. She likes the growth arising out of the US exposure and considers the 4% yield a good yield. The company increases earnings at the level of earnings growth. She expects 15% earnings growth this year, which suggests a likely rise of 15% in the dividend. Next year, as US growth moderates, she expects growth to slow to the single digit level. This is not the type buy in her current stock universe, but she still recommends buying it on a pullback. Yield just under 4%.