Opinions Joe Hegener, CIO & Founder, Asterozoa Capital
SpaceXSPCXDON'T BUYJun 02, 2026
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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This will be the biggest IPO of the year. The stock will probably pop maybe 25, 50, 100%. Who knows? Longer term, it's expected to have a market cap of $1.75 trillion. Last year's revenues were $16-17 billion, maybe $26 billion this year. It will trade at 80x annual revenues, very rich. Starlink generates most revenues and profits, but the big upside is putting data centres in space. On land, the data centres need a lot of power and water. Water offers unlimited solar energy, so operating centres will be half.
Today, more IPO details were released: Musk's shares are locked up for a full year, and several major shareholders agreed to extended lock-ups which represent 60% of shares after the IPO. He likes this, because it will help prop up the stock. But he doesn't like that up to 20% of shares will be released when they release their Q2 report; that's a lot of shares. As the lock-ups gradually expire and the share float increases, so will SPCX's weighting in the index, which will lead to waves of buying by index funds. This could pressure the overall market each time, starting in December. Keep this in mind if you want to buy.
Dollar-cost average over a year if you're excited by the name. The valuation is at nosebleed levels. You can buy a tranche and closely watch the lock-up sales. His concern is where the funds to buy all these shares will come from, for both SpaceX and Anthropic. If the funds come out of cash, that's good for the market, but if it means selling other shares, that's not good. He expects it to come from net cash. Would you pay taxable gains to sell NVDA in order to buy SpaceX? A risk is a deluge of insider selling. Overall, he will avoid SPCX.