Opinions Joe Hegener, CIO & Founder, Asterozoa Capital
SpaceXSPCXDON'T BUYJun 02, 2026
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
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Loves Starlink and even the AI component. He's looking at this years in the future.
Kevin SimpsonDon't do it. IPOs are the ultimate hype machine. Operating fundamentals just aren't there yet, an emerging company. Market opportunity could be huge, but earnings and free cashflow are fairly speculative. Multiple of 80+x revenue is stratospheric.
Speculate in your own account if you want. But for your child, buy a compounder that can grow for 15-20 years.
Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.
One day, it could be a huge winner, but doesn't know when. Tomorrow, a huge block of shares will be unlocked by insiders. So, tomorrow the stocl will likely get hit again (-13.61% today). Musk has seen success with Tesla, so he can access funding. They just signed 1.7 million internet subscribers, and on the mobile side they're gunning for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobil customers.
What the company is doing is great. (He even uses Starlink at his cottage, it's fabulous.) Massively overvalued. Could possibly (but not probably) grow into its valuation over 5 years, and he wouldn't want to take the chance on it.
It's the price you buy at that really counts. A lot of venture capital funds and private equity put $$ in. Once the lockup period is over, and they've made 10x their money, they'll head for the exit.
He'd like to this and Tesla merge. There would be great synergies. Both companies trade at high multiples and volatilty. If it falls to $100, he will double down.
Kevin SimpsonVery attractive here, if you look 3-5 years out. You need to have a very long-term horizon. She's looking for the point when launch costs drop from $3k per kg to $300, as it'll open a massive opportunity for new industries. Not super-cheap at this price; ideally, you want it when market cap is below $2T.
Unique, as the only one right now that can use reusable rockets to achieve cost reduction.
She sold one of her SPCX positions. She is a big fan of Elon Musk. The first year of an IPO can be dicey; Facebook and Uber fell 50%. SPCX needs to execute in some hard areas. VCs will definitely take some shares off the table at the end of the lock-up period. Since December 2024, it's up 6x while earnings are up 33%. She will watch over the next few quarters.
Bryn Talkington
Dollar-cost average over a year if you're excited by the name. The valuation is at nosebleed levels. You can buy a tranche and closely watch the lock-up sales. His concern is where the funds to buy all these shares will come from, for both SpaceX and Anthropic. If the funds come out of cash, that's good for the market, but if it means selling other shares, that's not good. He expects it to come from net cash. Would you pay taxable gains to sell NVDA in order to buy SpaceX? A risk is a deluge of insider selling. Overall, he will avoid SPCX.