Opinions Joe Hegener, CIO & Founder, Asterozoa Capital
SpaceXSPCXDON'T BUYJun 02, 2026
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 11, 2026. Market Open.
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Revenues have surged 161% year over year, beating expectations; revenue growth has risen from 15% in Q1, 92% in Q2 to 161% in Q3. Earnings have also exploded and beat the street. Plus, they offered bullish guidance. But the success of the space business hinges on the development of SpaceX's starship program, massive rockets that can haul a lot of cargo into space. Also, they are moving aggressively into the wireless market. Their biggest business is renting out computing power; their AI business grew from 17% of revenue in Q1, then 33% in Q2, then 52% in Q3, and was up 830% YOY. So, why isn't he buying it? Their capex guidance is enormous, nearly double what the street expects. To grow, the computer power segment needs huge capex SPXC just announced a big debt financing deal with private equity and will need many more deals or sell additional shares. Also, a merger with Tesla will undercut the valuation of SpaceX. And who knows what the midterm elections hold for data centres going forward? The biggest reason is that there are too many shares of SpaceX that haven't been traded yet and will overwhelm demand.
It's one of the five biggest spenders in capex on data centres. Adjusted earnings beat and its first profits was a big step forward. Space, connectivity and super-intelligence were profitable. Their SI business generated more than half the company's revenue, but they spent $19.6 billion on capex last quarter and will double that in Q4, nearly double Wall Street's estimate.
He loves its Starlink business, and wishes he could buy just that. The problem is, he doesn't know enough of its space business. He can't model its earnings yet. He will watch and research it. It's a cult stock and doesn't trade at a normal valuation. It's too speculative and if he owed it, it would be a small holding.
He'll probably merge it with Tesla one day. He owns a small position. SpaceX remains a speculation play, but it's a long-term hold.
Kim Bolton
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Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.09 USD per share, beating the -0.23 USD estimate by 60.82%. Revenue for the same period reached 7.81 B USD, despite the estimate of 6.83 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 0.14 USD in earnings per share and 12.86 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 229% in the past 24h.
Expects it to have very good growth for many years to come. (You won't get TSLA for free; there will be additional shares issued or some such arrangement.) Competition is way behind, but will increase. Chasm between the hyperbole and the numbers.
Not even close to being interested, even if valuation fell by half. TSLA had similar hype -- an idea that would come about in the future, with no competition, and it'll make "lots" of money (but margins are less than most car manufacturers).
Loves Starlink and even the AI component. He's looking at this years in the future.
Kevin SimpsonDon't do it. IPOs are the ultimate hype machine. Operating fundamentals just aren't there yet, an emerging company. Market opportunity could be huge, but earnings and free cashflow are fairly speculative. Multiple of 80+x revenue is stratospheric.
Speculate in your own account if you want. But for your child, buy a compounder that can grow for 15-20 years.
Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.
Dollar-cost average over a year if you're excited by the name. The valuation is at nosebleed levels. You can buy a tranche and closely watch the lock-up sales. His concern is where the funds to buy all these shares will come from, for both SpaceX and Anthropic. If the funds come out of cash, that's good for the market, but if it means selling other shares, that's not good. He expects it to come from net cash. Would you pay taxable gains to sell NVDA in order to buy SpaceX? A risk is a deluge of insider selling. Overall, he will avoid SPCX.