Opinions Rob Sechan, Managing Partner, New Edge Capital
SpaceXSPCXWAITJun 22, 2026
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 24, 2026. Market Open.
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It will be volatile, down 25% from highs, but had rallied 50% from the IPO price. Set it and forget it, holding for 10-15 years. Revenues could rise 70% and double gross margins by 2030. They have a 90% market share in space, cost advantage given scale, launch costs will plunge from $14 million to $3-5 million in time. Starlink has 10 million customers, expected to top 200 million by 2030. Anthropic and Google are spending $2 billion/monthly renting AI compute.
He'll buy it below the IPO price. There is speculative fervor, fueled by Elon Musk who is too P.T. Barnum-esque for his liking. Musk said SpaceX will reach $1 trillion in sales by 2030. Well, how about $100 billion first? I have Elon discounted, not at a premium. SpaceX's price and valuation are too much. Tesla defies fundamentals, yet still does well. Robotaxis and self-driving cars haven't happened, but shares still go up.
Underwriters, scarcity and index inclusion will hold up this stock for the first month, then the fundamentals will apply after the lock-up comes off. He owned this privately and now publicly. When their costs go down and the share prices goes up, SPACX is the winner. Margins are good and will improve. There are many parts to this business, and the most important is enterprise AI. Don't chase it here, though. Would buy if the price returns to the IPO, which may not happen. No stock has more momentum than this.
The market doesn't care about its high valuation, but only the dream going forward. Musk is a genius who's made people continue to believe in the extremely high Tesla valuation, despite declining fundamentals. He'll buy it. This is a bet pure and simple on Elon Musk. It's a speculative trading stock, not a hold.
This is about you buying the track record of Elon Musk, and few will bet against it. Forget fundamentals.
Joe TerranovaSpaceX raised a record $75 billion at a ~$1.77 trillion valuation (pricing at $135/share). Shares began trading on Nasdaq under $SPCX, quickly popping 20%+ (trading around $164–$172 intraday, pushing market cap above $2 trillion). This is the largest IPO in history by a wide margin. Social media sentiment is highly positive and hype-driven. Posts celebrate the "historic" debut, Musk becoming a trillionaire (per some estimates), first-day gains, memes, and comparisons to meme stocks or tech giants. Some caution about volatility, "rug pull" risks, or long-term valuation concerns, but enthusiasm dominates.
Dollar-cost average over a year if you're excited by the name. The valuation is at nosebleed levels. You can buy a tranche and closely watch the lock-up sales. His concern is where the funds to buy all these shares will come from, for both SpaceX and Anthropic. If the funds come out of cash, that's good for the market, but if it means selling other shares, that's not good. He expects it to come from net cash. Would you pay taxable gains to sell NVDA in order to buy SpaceX? A risk is a deluge of insider selling. Overall, he will avoid SPCX.
This will be the biggest IPO of the year. The stock will probably pop maybe 25, 50, 100%. Who knows? Longer term, it's expected to have a market cap of $1.75 trillion. Last year's revenues were $16-17 billion, maybe $26 billion this year. It will trade at 80x annual revenues, very rich. Starlink generates most revenues and profits, but the big upside is putting data centres in space. On land, the data centres need a lot of power and water. Water offers unlimited solar energy, so operating centres will be half.
Today, more IPO details were released: Musk's shares are locked up for a full year, and several major shareholders agreed to extended lock-ups which represent 60% of shares after the IPO. He likes this, because it will help prop up the stock. But he doesn't like that up to 20% of shares will be released when they release their Q2 report; that's a lot of shares. As the lock-ups gradually expire and the share float increases, so will SPCX's weighting in the index, which will lead to waves of buying by index funds. This could pressure the overall market each time, starting in December. Keep this in mind if you want to buy.
Down 10% today. It still hasn't been price-discovered yet. It's still engineered around the IPO and there are lock-ups coming. No company can replicate their fundamentals. Won't but now, maybe later.