SpaceXSPCXCOMMENTJun 01, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 25, 2026. Market Open.
Expects it to have very good growth for many years to come. (You won't get TSLA for free; there will be additional shares issued or some such arrangement.) Competition is way behind, but will increase. Chasm between the hyperbole and the numbers.
Not even close to being interested, even if valuation fell by half. TSLA had similar hype -- an idea that would come about in the future, with no competition, and it'll make "lots" of money (but margins are less than most car manufacturers).
Don't do it. IPOs are the ultimate hype machine. Operating fundamentals just aren't there yet, an emerging company. Market opportunity could be huge, but earnings and free cashflow are fairly speculative. Multiple of 80+x revenue is stratospheric.
Speculate in your own account if you want. But for your child, buy a compounder that can grow for 15-20 years.
Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.
One day, it could be a huge winner, but doesn't know when. Tomorrow, a huge block of shares will be unlocked by insiders. So, tomorrow the stocl will likely get hit again (-13.61% today). Musk has seen success with Tesla, so he can access funding. They just signed 1.7 million internet subscribers, and on the mobile side they're gunning for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobil customers.
What the company is doing is great. (He even uses Starlink at his cottage, it's fabulous.) Massively overvalued. Could possibly (but not probably) grow into its valuation over 5 years, and he wouldn't want to take the chance on it.
It's the price you buy at that really counts. A lot of venture capital funds and private equity put $$ in. Once the lockup period is over, and they've made 10x their money, they'll head for the exit.
Today, more IPO details were released: Musk's shares are locked up for a full year, and several major shareholders agreed to extended lock-ups which represent 60% of shares after the IPO. He likes this, because it will help prop up the stock. But he doesn't like that up to 20% of shares will be released when they release their Q2 report; that's a lot of shares. As the lock-ups gradually expire and the share float increases, so will SPCX's weighting in the index, which will lead to waves of buying by index funds. This could pressure the overall market each time, starting in December. Keep this in mind if you want to buy.