Opinions Martin Cobb, ASIP
SpaceXSPCXDON'T BUYSep 17, 2026
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 17, 2026. Market Open.
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Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.09 USD per share, beating the -0.23 USD estimate by 60.82%. Revenue for the same period reached 7.81 B USD, despite the estimate of 6.83 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 0.14 USD in earnings per share and 12.86 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 229% in the past 24h.
Loves Starlink and even the AI component. He's looking at this years in the future.
Kevin SimpsonDon't do it. IPOs are the ultimate hype machine. Operating fundamentals just aren't there yet, an emerging company. Market opportunity could be huge, but earnings and free cashflow are fairly speculative. Multiple of 80+x revenue is stratospheric.
Speculate in your own account if you want. But for your child, buy a compounder that can grow for 15-20 years.
Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.
One day, it could be a huge winner, but doesn't know when. Tomorrow, a huge block of shares will be unlocked by insiders. So, tomorrow the stocl will likely get hit again (-13.61% today). Musk has seen success with Tesla, so he can access funding. They just signed 1.7 million internet subscribers, and on the mobile side they're gunning for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobil customers.
What the company is doing is great. (He even uses Starlink at his cottage, it's fabulous.) Massively overvalued. Could possibly (but not probably) grow into its valuation over 5 years, and he wouldn't want to take the chance on it.
It's the price you buy at that really counts. A lot of venture capital funds and private equity put $$ in. Once the lockup period is over, and they've made 10x their money, they'll head for the exit.
He'd like to this and Tesla merge. There would be great synergies. Both companies trade at high multiples and volatilty. If it falls to $100, he will double down.
Kevin SimpsonVery attractive here, if you look 3-5 years out. You need to have a very long-term horizon. She's looking for the point when launch costs drop from $3k per kg to $300, as it'll open a massive opportunity for new industries. Not super-cheap at this price; ideally, you want it when market cap is below $2T.
Unique, as the only one right now that can use reusable rockets to achieve cost reduction.
Expects it to have very good growth for many years to come. (You won't get TSLA for free; there will be additional shares issued or some such arrangement.) Competition is way behind, but will increase. Chasm between the hyperbole and the numbers.
Not even close to being interested, even if valuation fell by half. TSLA had similar hype -- an idea that would come about in the future, with no competition, and it'll make "lots" of money (but margins are less than most car manufacturers).