iShares Silver ETF (SLV)

The outlook for silver is pretty good. Some of the stocks have been good or better performers than the commodity. Any silver stock is good if you have a decent time horizon. He likes junior producers in silver whereas he prefers the larger caps in gold.

The whole gold bullion space has been spectacular, but hasn’t been without a lot of pain for a very long time. He would prefer First Majestic Silver (FR-T) or Silver Wheaton (SLW-T). Keep very close Stops on these types of names.

SLV-N is a trust silver ETF with call options. He does not think there is an equivalent in Canada.

There is some seasonality to silver at this time of year, but generally speaking the chart is not a pretty picture. The trend since 2012 has been generally down. He would avoid this at this time.

There is a really neat little trade you can do, from around this time of the year on. Silver in particular is one of the better movers from around mid July into around Oct/Nov. It tends to outperform gold, but they both move pretty well. The next resistance point is $22, not a bad trade from here. If it breaks $22, the movement could be very large. You almost always get a pop after the summer.

(A Top *Short* May 9/13. Up 2.58%.) Period of seasonal weakness for silver is in May and June and you would’ve gained over 20% on this trade. Now we are in the period of seasonal strength so you want to flip that.

*Short*. May and June are very negative for silver. 2.8%, usually. It is very negative this year. A lot of negative setups. He would short for May and June and then you get into a period of seasonal strength for Silver, so exit then.

Gold is not going to break out so silver will have a tough time. $26-$27 will be the cap for silver.

Normally silver does okay right around January/February of each year but not so much this year. Had a big negative influence based on what’s happening with gold. Technically it is on a downward trend and below its 20 day moving average and underperforming the S&P 500.

The most liquid silver ETF out there. SVR-T is a Canadian equivalent.

Silver’s seasonality, in many ways, is very similar to gold. Historically, the weakest month of the year for both is the month of October and then builds a base in November and December. You do get buying opportunities as you get close to the end of the year for silver and for silver stocks in general. Would prefer other sectors right now as this is the time when economically sensitive sectors do very well in the market.