Stockchase Opinions

Ryan Bushell Savaria Corp SIS-T TOP PICK May 24, 2024

Very well run company that has respect for shareholders. Long term tailwinds with home elevator service. Aging population will continue demand for products. Recent tour of Canadian factory very impressive. Expecting further dividend increases in 2025. Expecting further growth. 

$17.730

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Up 52%)

Has owned this for a long time, since it was $5. Are the global leader in this space. Results this year are phenomenal with strong organic growth and increasing profit margins. Are becoming synergistic in their various businesses across US and Europe through cross-selling. Are reaching 19% EBITDA margins from supply chain optimization. Now, it's hitting all-time highs, but is a good long-term investment due to an aging population as people buy stairlifts and elevators. A lot of growth, top and bottom, ahead. Today, the chairman is selling shares, which doesn't scare him, because it doesn't change the fundamentals.

PARTIAL BUY

Impressed with business. Very steady revenue lines. Elevators and stair lift demand growing. Growth not high, but is a quality company. 

BUY

Owns a lot. Is happy with this small-cap. The recent choppiness is due to the founder selling shares, but SIS is in a good spot. They guided margins from 15% to 20% and are already almost there. They're in a demographic sweet spot. Are expanding revenues. Will raise the dividend, which is already good.

BUY
Fell on Tuesday's tariff news, bouncing today.

Benefits from the aging population that has financial flexibility. Very strong market position. Professionalizing a mom & pop industry. Really good job acquiring and integrating products. Not expensive. Well run. Has a place in a growth portfolio.

He's not avoiding companies with tariff risk, as he doesn't think tariffs will be as bad as feared.

TOP PICK

Leader in home accessibility and patient handling products. Benefits from aging demographics. Phenomenal results, increased margins. Over 18% EBITDA margins YTD. 

Stock's down on tariff threat, big overreaction. Buying opportunity. Patient handling products are all made in USA, and most home accessibility is FDA-approved (tariff exempt). Home elevator business may not be exempt, but could easily shift manufacturing to another of its 12 plants worldwide. Yield is 3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $26.64)
TOP PICK

This is how she's playing the aging demographic theme. Long-term secular trend.

Accessibility segment, plus products in the patient care segment help with the healthcare worker shortage. Margins this year have improved from 16% to 19.5%. Stock dropped due to tariff issues, and this is overdone; FDA-approved items are not subject to tariffs. US manufacturing facility can take on more production if required. Yield is 3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $26.64)
HOLD

Good company, but not outstanding. High quality, steady eddy. Not a low multiple. You'll do well over time. More of a mature business, doesn't have the growth he likes to see.

(Analysts’ price target is $27.00)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Will they be exempt from Trump tariffs because they sell FDA-approved products?

He remains a big fan of the company. They've increased margins and revenues. The tariffs have impacted shares. He isn't panicking but rather buying on weakness, including yesterday. Volatility will continue. The US makes up 33% of sales, and because SIS has a lot of manufacturing in the US so those sales should conform with the tariffs. If FDA-approved products, like elevators are exempt, that would raise the US percentage. Ultimately, SIS will navigate tariffs which won't last forever.

DON'T BUY

Two years ago was his last meeting with the company. It was good, but not good enough. Long-term care is challenged -- government reimbursement is an issue, growth is stable but low single digits. Wouldn't buy today.

BUY

It fell below $20 on tariff fears. Some products may be exempt from tariffs if covered by Medicare. They've grown by acquisition, so have some exposure to the US. This is not bad at this price now to hide in. Their business is generally stable and shares are relatively cheap. Management owns lots of shares and have grown the business well. SIS is a better play than a software or oil company this size, because their business is stable. It helps they have business outside US, though input costs this year will be a worry.