Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase Discover Savaria Corp SIS-T BUY Jun 08, 2021

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks After years of ups and downs, Savaria turned a corner last winter when it bought Handicare to double the company’s size and become the global market leader. Of course, the underlying tailwind remains aging demographics. It’s a lot cheaper for a senior to install an elevator in their home than to move into a residence. Also, how Covid ravaged nursing homes in 2020 is tragically fresh on everyone’s minds. Savaria’s last four quarters actually saw two beats and two misses in earnings, so the street is betting on the future. For example, SIS stock’s EPS estimate for Q4 2021 is 22 cents compared to the actual 13 cents of Q4 2020. There’s still upside here, so this is definitely a buy. Read 3 Hot TSX Stocks for our full analysis.
$20.070

Stock price when the opinion was issued

other services
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

BUY

Owns a lot. Is happy with this small-cap. The recent choppiness is due to the founder selling shares, but SIS is in a good spot. They guided margins from 15% to 20% and are already almost there. They're in a demographic sweet spot. Are expanding revenues. Will raise the dividend, which is already good.

BUY
Fell on Tuesday's tariff news, bouncing today.

Benefits from the aging population that has financial flexibility. Very strong market position. Professionalizing a mom & pop industry. Really good job acquiring and integrating products. Not expensive. Well run. Has a place in a growth portfolio.

He's not avoiding companies with tariff risk, as he doesn't think tariffs will be as bad as feared.

TOP PICK

Leader in home accessibility and patient handling products. Benefits from aging demographics. Phenomenal results, increased margins. Over 18% EBITDA margins YTD. 

Stock's down on tariff threat, big overreaction. Buying opportunity. Patient handling products are all made in USA, and most home accessibility is FDA-approved (tariff exempt). Home elevator business may not be exempt, but could easily shift manufacturing to another of its 12 plants worldwide. Yield is 3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $26.64)
TOP PICK

This is how she's playing the aging demographic theme. Long-term secular trend.

Accessibility segment, plus products in the patient care segment help with the healthcare worker shortage. Margins this year have improved from 16% to 19.5%. Stock dropped due to tariff issues, and this is overdone; FDA-approved items are not subject to tariffs. US manufacturing facility can take on more production if required. Yield is 3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $26.64)
HOLD

Good company, but not outstanding. High quality, steady eddy. Not a low multiple. You'll do well over time. More of a mature business, doesn't have the growth he likes to see.

(Analysts’ price target is $27.00)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Will they be exempt from Trump tariffs because they sell FDA-approved products?

He remains a big fan of the company. They've increased margins and revenues. The tariffs have impacted shares. He isn't panicking but rather buying on weakness, including yesterday. Volatility will continue. The US makes up 33% of sales, and because SIS has a lot of manufacturing in the US so those sales should conform with the tariffs. If FDA-approved products, like elevators are exempt, that would raise the US percentage. Ultimately, SIS will navigate tariffs which won't last forever.

DON'T BUY

Two years ago was his last meeting with the company. It was good, but not good enough. Long-term care is challenged -- government reimbursement is an issue, growth is stable but low single digits. Wouldn't buy today.

BUY

It fell below $20 on tariff fears. Some products may be exempt from tariffs if covered by Medicare. They've grown by acquisition, so have some exposure to the US. This is not bad at this price now to hide in. Their business is generally stable and shares are relatively cheap. Management owns lots of shares and have grown the business well. SIS is a better play than a software or oil company this size, because their business is stable. It helps they have business outside US, though input costs this year will be a worry.

DON'T BUY

Absolutely a growing market. Traded sideways for last 4-5 years. Hit pretty hard in Feb/Mar with all the tariff news because a lot of production is in Canada and China. Trying to move some production to US. Be careful. Growth decent, but not outstanding. Look elsewhere.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 24/24, Up 5%)

It was much better last October before US tariffs happened. He doesn't expect SIS will suffer much or any tariff impact, because they are covered under USMCA and are considered medical products for the elderly. He likes the demographic trend of aging at home, especially post-pandemic. They are streamlining operations and growing margins.