Opinions Paul Harris, CFA
Royal Dutch Shell PLC (A)RDS.ADON'T BUYSep 26, 2019
Paul Harris, CFAUnknown
$58.55
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$51.05
As of Jan 28, 2022. Market Open.
integrated oils
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Believes company will benefit from Covid-19 recovery (more travel and energy use).
Financial metrics such as cash flow, dividends and share buy backs are very strong.
Investments into renewable energy will be unmatched, creating large opportunities.
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Premium contentTOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate RDS.A as a TOP PICK as a way to play the global recovery in oil and gas, while avoiding the pipeline drama in North America. The company is working to become carbon neutral by 2050, is one of the largest producers in the world, and is investing in renewable energy. It trades at book value and is priced at 7x forward earnings. It pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 30% of next year's cash flow. We like how they are increasing cash reserves, while paying down debt and buying back shares. We continue to recommend keeping a tight stop at $41, with upside to $59.50 -- potential over 33%. Yield 4.34% (Analysts’ price target is $59.49)
integrated oils
Premium contentPAST TOP PICK
COMMENT
In May, they announced their target of a 20% reduction in emissions by 2030--a major announcement. But then the International Court in the Hague ordered a 45% reduction, which was a shock to RDS. So, they must speed up their plan, which is building a portfolio of low-carbon technologies, including renewables and bio-energy and hydrogen power. This is happening to all the oil majors, but have to compete with renewable companies as investors have bid up these stocks and assets. Short-term, this reallocation of capital has caused capex to collapse among all the oil majors. So, there's a squeeze in the oil market with demand spiking but with limited oil demand. There's no spare capacity. In the medium term we are awash in oil. That said, there could be a short-term opportunity.
integrated oils
DON'T BUY
The conversation is centred around climate. Shell and others are doing as much as they can to shift to renewables. Look at clean power companies instead, as they won't have this overhang. The story is a lot easier when you're not fighting the uphill battle of being characterized as an energy company.
integrated oils
Premium contentTOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly A way to play the global recovery in oil and gas, while avoiding the pipeline drama in North America. The company is working to become carbon neutral by 2050, is one of the largest producers in the world, and is investing in renewable energy. It trades below book value and at 8.5x forward earnings. It pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 30% of next year's cash flow. We would buy this with a stop loss at $30, looking to achieve $51 -- upside potential over 30%. Yield 3.37% (Analysts’ price target is $50.86)
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BUY
A large, global integrated oil company, which he likes because it benefits from world oil prices. It has never cut its dividend and its financial shape is pristine. It's one of the lowest-cost oil producers and pays a double-digit dividend that's safe for 12 months, but will likely cut after.
integrated oils
DON'T BUY
He exited oil and gas in 2015 after investing in it since 2004. Up cycles in energy take place 20 years apart, so we are 5-10 years into a down cycle. He needs to see production and reserve growth per share before investing in an oil stock, and no stocks are. That said, oil has been oversold and is due to bounce up, but will these stocks bounce from a lower level?
integrated oils
DON'T BUY
He exited energy in 2014; the cycle is over. It's a cyclical business, which means own this infrequently. Between 2026-2032, we might start a new cycle. He won't re-renter until there is production and reserve growth per share. Everybody uses less energy through conservation and e-cars, etc. Wind and solar energy are growing sectors, not oil.
integrated oils
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 03/19, Up 7%) An improving balance sheet and using cash to pay down debt and buy back shares. He expects a double digit return this year. Yield 6%
Bruce Campbell (1)Owned
integrated oils
All oil stocks are cheap. This pays a huge dividend and cash flow yield. They make money in integrated gas. They move good LNG projects coming, like in Brazil. Their issue is social: climate change movement. Even institutional managers face pressure to not buy oil. Oil stocks will remain cheap. The companies' challenge is adjusting to a new non-fossil fuel world.