Jesse Gamble Propel Holdings PRL-T BUY Jan 27, 2025

Levered spread, but competing in niches where it's the largest. Potential for less risk and spread compression. Wishes he'd investigated further when it was cheaper. He wouldn't buy at this level, but it's been 6-9 months since he's taken a close look.

Fast-growing business. Legislative risk on the high interest rates they charge. Might also be susceptible to economic weakness. 

Likes it. Not immune from tariffs. If tariffs don't go on, and we have a good economy (which is in doubt right now), it's a great stock. Cheap at 8x with 36% growth rate. Stock's come down in the last week -- it's not personal, it's just the market. High risk. Tethered to credit cycle, so don't buy if you're negative on the economy. Nice dividend.

It's had a great run, but could underperform if we get a global recession, based on what Trump is doing. He wants to see this company go through one complete business cycle before considering it. Recent performance has been great, though.

Significant pullback, especially on Q4 results and softer guidance. But revenue and net income still up. Fintech is shaking up the finance world. Not a giant in the space like a PYPL, but a longer-term rising star. Leader in the space of lending to the underserved consumer. Economic uncertainties will be a challenge.

The dip might well be worth grabbing for growth. On her watchlist.

Non-prime lending is a tough business. Canada has capped interest rates on how much you can charge. They have to charge a lot to make any money. PRL has grown a lot since going public a few years ago. They raised their dividend many times. Shares climbed to $40, then sank in recent months, though their business has not changed. Why? Fundamentals are sound. Perhaps there are fears of loan defaults. But during recessions, they get more clients, people desperate for loans. Caveat: shares go down with the market in a recession. Dividend and growth are okay. The valuation is down to a low and is attractive.

Pretty solid earnings, most metrics better than expected. Missed core EPS by 2 cents. Growth names are really getting smashed here as people pull out. Enormous ability to grow, nothing wrong with it. Trades at 6x 2025 PE, with 35% growth rate.

In recessions or growth scares, people have less ability to pay back loans. So a company's PCLs are a concern. 90% of its business is in the US right now. Growing in Canada and in the UK. 

If we go into a recession (but he doesn't think we are), this name is probably going to get worse. A really good name given the setup right now on valuation, execution, and the market. If you own it in a non-registered account, try to buy more.

Great company and management. Delivers very good risk-adjusted returns, very high ROE. Likes that they can reprice loans at a very fast rate. Need to see additional diversification of funding sources; if so, would warrant a higher multiple. UK acquisition highly accretive, which will play out over 12-24 months.

Pullback is unwarranted, good time to buy. Concern about credit quality, but so far credit experience has been good.