Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUYMar 06, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
Interest-sensitive pipelines have all had a rough time. He owns ENB.
These companies have great assets that aren't going away. CEOs of these companies feel it's difficult to do business in Canada. ENB, for example, is dedicating all its capital to the US. That's going to be the strategy if these companies want to grow.
Good time to buy. Though rates aren't going down as quickly as people think, they're not going up from here. That's the value proposition. Over the next 6-9 months or so, rates will come down at the short end and the yield curve will look differently. These companies will benefit from that.