50% off Premium Yearly
Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TODON'T BUYMar 10, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 09, 2026. Market Open.
Exposure to the 4 horsemen of Western Canadian growth: gas, LNG, condensate, and crude. Partnership with META. Heartland Extraction Plant should see more volumes. Leverage to the pipeline going west out of Alberta. Exposure to Cedar LNG facility under construction.
Low double-digit internal growth, plus dividend yield, gives you ~15% annual compound return. Yield is 4.65%.
They will benefit from the long-term investments that Canadian government is making in Western Canada, like growing oil and natural gas production (LNG Canada). They have a good track record of completing projects on time and on budget. Always a good dividend payer, now at 4.5%. The midstreams are a safe way to play ongoing production in Western Canada.
There are some overhangs on deals with KKR and Apollo but it is well run and has the best growth prospects of similar companies. The coming increase of LNG is good for Pembina as the Canadian infrastructure gets larger. Even at higher prices today it is showing strength.
A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not).
You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
Outlook for Pembina in fulfilling take-or-pay contracts with clients. That's exactly the concern behind the stock going down. That's the risk. It's like Chorus Aviation's relationship to Air Canada (though AC has a strong balance sheet and is well-positioned). PPL was trading at a pricey 20x EBIT to EBITDA. Pays a big, growing yield at a reasonable payout ratio, assuming they can maintain cash flow. The market is determining how risky that is. PPL has lost its utility-like premium and trading down. Valuation is cheaper, but it's becoming volatile. Let the dust settle before considering this.