Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOCOMMENTOct 30, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Exposure to the 4 horsemen of Western Canadian growth: gas, LNG, condensate, and crude. Partnership with META. Heartland Extraction Plant should see more volumes. Leverage to the pipeline going west out of Alberta. Exposure to Cedar LNG facility under construction.
Low double-digit internal growth, plus dividend yield, gives you ~15% annual compound return. Yield is 4.65%.
They will benefit from the long-term investments that Canadian government is making in Western Canada, like growing oil and natural gas production (LNG Canada). They have a good track record of completing projects on time and on budget. Always a good dividend payer, now at 4.5%. The midstreams are a safe way to play ongoing production in Western Canada.
There are some overhangs on deals with KKR and Apollo but it is well run and has the best growth prospects of similar companies. The coming increase of LNG is good for Pembina as the Canadian infrastructure gets larger. Even at higher prices today it is showing strength.
A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not).
You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
Pipelines have been a weird place to be, but this is one of the strong ones. From 2014 to 2016, it had a big downtrend, but was followed by a nice upswing. The trend had a bit of a break a few months back, where the market was wondering if the value had been fully realized. For the next 6 months if we have a pro-growth rally going in other areas, it doesn't mean you are not going to find valuations that are out of whack. Prefers Inter Pipeline (IPL-T), which has been beaten up a little more and has a higher yield. He would like to see this one hold just below the $40 range. Below that, we are actually looking at capital erosion.