Opinions
Robert Lauzon
Painted Pony Energy
PONY-T
COMMENT
Apr 08, 2015
$6.510
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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BUY
They have significant assets in the core area that will benefit from LNG. They had a tough second quarter and production came in because they shut in some production. The fourth quarter is going to be good. He thinks they can buy down debt next year. It is a higher beta stock and not owned by institutions. They could be a takeover candidate 3 or 4 years down the road.
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DON'T BUY
He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.
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This will eventually be taken over when someone actually builds an LNG project, which might be 7 years from now. If you have a five-year horizon, you will probably make money, but in the meantime, you are just going to go sideways until there is a movement in energy. Be prepared to hold it for 6-8 months and you might get a nice rally. Not a bad entry point.