PetroKazakhstan Inc (PKZ.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PetroKazakhstan Inc (PKZ.TO)

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Would be cautious on this. It has had a disasterous year. If you look at the operating and financial metrics it has been stupendous. Trading very inexpensively at 3.7 X EPS versus 10 for it's peers. There are a lot of issues with political overhangs, CEO leaving, disputes with a major refinery. Would wait for more of a base to set in.

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DON'T BUY

Very controversial. Has oil and a good refinery upgrade where you can make money. They are in confrontation with both the government and the country's largest oil producer.

DON'T BUY

A lot of geopolitical risks. All kinds of issues here. When economy slows, you tend to have a correction in oil prices. Feels that oil prices are going to pull back to $43 by year end. Probab;ly has more downside to it. Would wait for the price to hit $20.

WAIT

The market did not like the news of the CEO retiring. Would wait for the dust to settle before going into this stock.

WAIT

A tough story because it's an incredibly well managed business, great assets. Unfortunately they are in Kazakstan which always has political risks. Not considered as a safe haven. Will be a higher volatilty stock. Wait for some strength to come back into the energy sector.

BUY

The present problem is not as serious as some of their past problems with the government that they were able to stick handle through.

WEAK BUY

Uktinmately the dispute will get resolved, but ultimately you do not want to get that close to a world of words. Fairly reasonable value and cheap when compared to Cdn/US peers. A fairly safe entry point for people who are a little more risk tolerant.

BUY

There is political risk there, but you have to remember, Kazakstan is not Russia. Management has a very good relationship with the country. Cheap.

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BUY

With the pull back, it's a buying opportunity. A solid performer. It doesn't get the credit it deserves largely because of the country risk. Looking at valuation, capital employed, it's an absolute star. Trading at an earnings per share basis (EPS) at 6.1 X versus 13.

WEAK BUY

Looks undervalued, but you need a pace maker for this particular stock. The good news on this stock is for long term holders. It's earning so much money that it's balance sheet grows and as you can see by the progression of the stock, even over the last year, basically it's a growth of the balance sheet. You're not getting a valuation pick-up, but you are getting a growth in earnings.

BUY

A low multiple stock because of country risk (Kazakstan). The story here is getting their transportation costs down which they have been doing. Huge cash flows. Sell-off is a buying opportunity.

BUY

Higher than expected production base. Increasing dividends.

DON'T BUY

Political risks. Poor government. Very risky

BUY

Fundamentally it's in outstanding shape with incredible return of capital enployed. In an unstable region, so there is geopolitical risk. You can hold this and be comfortable.

TOP PICK

Even after the rise they've had over the last 5 years, they are trading at very low mutiples, 5 X this year's earnings and 6 X cash flow. This is because of their location in Kazakhstan which makes investors nervous. The government is very good in maintaining law and order. Doing buisness at a low cost and making a lot of money.

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PetroKazakhstan Inc (PKZ.TO)