Stockchase Opinions

Robert LyonPengrowth Energy Trust (US)PGHBUYJun 11, 2001

Can be cyclical. Good long term.
$20.55

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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SELL

It’s a tough story. The chart has nothing redeeming. High dividend and people are wondering when the bottom is coming. You have to look at a point on the charts and say it is past where you are comfortable holding it and then get out. He does not know it if it will turn around any time soon. Tax loss selling still to come so there is more downside.

DON'T BUY
Thinks there are better business models out there.
SELL
If owned, sell and move into a natural gas oriented trust such as Focus Peyto,Arc Energy,Prime West and Shining Bank.
DON'T BUY
Tends to pay out pretty much all of their cash flow which is a little bit worrisome.
DON'T BUY
Very efficiently run trust. Oil/natural gas prices will likely decline over next year, so distributions will remain stagnate. Have an underperform recommendation and would not commit money.
WEAK BUY
Generally well regarded. First-quarter results indicated some unexpectedly high production declines but were offset by lower royalties and lower operating costs. A new issue could be forthcoming.
WAIT
Has recently had a distribution decrease. Reserve life of 10/10.5 years. Have had some problems on the East Coast. Just made a big acquisition of Murphy Oil. Wait to see how they manage these new assets.
DON'T BUY
Has not been a favorite. Was not happy with their purchase of gas reserves off Nova Scotia. Recently had to write down their reserves.
DON'T BUY
Had to take major write downs. The managment team pays out almost all of the distributable income. Don't own.
SELL
Sell. More oil than natural gas. Had problem with restatement of reserves.
DON'T BUY
Any kind of bad news, such as energy prices, will drop the price very quickly because of the amount of US investment. Nervous about this.
DON'T BUY
Because of US interest, their numbers and prices have grown dramatically. Not based on fundamentals, so would take some profits.
DON'T BUY
Q: Why is Pengrowth higher in value than Arc Energy? A: Income trust trade on yield and that's what attracts investors. This company pays out about 100% of its cash flow and Arc pays out about 70%. Prefers Arc Energy.
BUY
Had a very good third quarter. Acquired 8 ½% in the Sable offshore oil fields. Profitability on that production should go up dramatically.
BUY
Has good growth potential at these levels. Has some good assets. There may be some small write-downs on their East Coast assets. Production levels haven't been as high as expected.