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Nexen Inc (NXY.TO)

DON'T BUY
Suncor (SU-T) or Nexen (NXY-T)? Both in the oilsands but this one is different and uses Steam Assisted Gravity. Have had 2-3 years of problems getting it up. Stock is statistically cheap but his preference would be Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T).
BUY
Chart shows a nice upward trend. Seasonally, this follows the trend of most Canadian oil stocks. Usually around the end of February right through to the middle of June, it will go significantly higher.
COMMENT
Very attractively valued at these levels. New CEO has to be appointed.
COMMENT
Continually disappointed, particularly on the Long Lake oil sands, which is a heat assisted way of processing. It’s high cost and disappointed a number of times in a row. Thinks they will be better on execution in the future. There are others that will do better sooner.
DON'T BUY
Has never bought this one as it is not a consistent company when it comes to production.
DON'T BUY
It trades at a substantial discount to its piers. It is cheap on price to net asset value. It is a value trap. They had disappointing results. Long lake resource continues to under perform and they don’t have a handle on it. They could sell long lake or do something to maximize the flow through the upgrader. They need to stop over promising and under delivering.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Has fallen into little holes on the ground between the Long Lake situation and and the UK tax regime. Also Yemen is not a stable country to do business in. If oil drops below $90 you may get a chance to buy this below $20. Have good assets. Bringing on new projects on shore in the UK. Prefers Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T), Talisman (TLM-T) and Encana (ECA-T).
DON'T BUY
Had to suspend production in Yemen. Also have operational issues in their Buzzard field in the North Sea so continue to miss production. Oil sands project, Long Lake, has never met expectations.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Apr 1/10, Up 8%) Model price almost $34. Upside of 30% from his model price. Positive earnings revision in the last 4 weeks.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick April 1/10. Down 7.23%.) Still a Buy.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Statistically cheap, good valuation, some production problems. Disappointed a few quarters in a row. If they can fix it, you will see the stock in the high 20’s. Buy below $22.
HOLD
Looks like it has just made a breakout. Sentiment is coming down a little. Could be some resistance when people Sell when the stock gets back to their Buy price.
COMMENT
Main problem is Long Lake, their reservoir that they have with Opti (OPC-T). Has under performed for long time and doesn’t seem to be any understanding as to when it will come. Generating a high steam oil ratio, which is a negative sign this late in the game. Expect it to go sideways from here.
DON'T BUY
Has really lagged the rest of the energy sector. Missed their earnings last quarter, which will have a drag on the stock. Trading below 200 day moving average. Prefers others.
DON'T BUY
Not one he would recommend. There are other oil stocks that are in a better space.
Showing 16 to 30 of 294 entries