Ryan Bushell Northland Power Inc NPI-T TOP PICK Nov 12, 2024

Ambitious projects sucked up a lot of capital. Projects now being completed on time and on budget. Divested assets to strengthen balance sheet. What are they going to do for growth going forward? Executive shuffles. Will be challenged for a while. He owns BLX.

Higher interest rates were really punitive for most companies in clean energy. Injuries in Taiwan and cable issues, but these are not reasons to sell. Decent value here. Projects will be accretive to revenue and earnings. Fears of Trump not being friendly to clean energy, but that's just one segment of the administration's total purview.

Its poor performance may make it a favourite target for tax-loss selling, which may actually provide a buying opportunity.

Q3 was a bit below on generation and pricing headwinds. More importantly, offshore continues to track on time and on budget. Mirrored 2024 guidance. De-risked a lot of their buildout. Part of the solution for the power problem in Europe.

Nice dividend, but it's still pretty pricey as a power company. Probably getting hit by tax-loss selling. Instead, he'd put new $$ into BEP.UN.

Higher interest rates have put pressure on energy creators, but he's been accumulating this when the price has been weak. Price target is in the upper-$20s. This is pretty good value.

This has been very good at executing their power operations (hydro, renewable), and pays a good 6.4% dividend. Decent growth is baked in. But he's not sure about their leverage, even though interest rates have declined.

Riskier than most people assume. Massive projects. Suffers when energy pivots from clean to traditional. He used to own and liked the dividend, though it's not as much a slam-dunk as a bank dividend. Pricey PE, doesn't see good risk/reward.

NPI has struggled a bit in the past year, down 24%. But overall we would see it today as a decent income investment at 16X earnings and a 6.85% dividend, with good earnings growth expected this year and in 2026. If it can execute on expected growth the stock should respond accordingly. Lower interest rates should also help here. 12-month payout ratio is less than 30% so there is room for a dividend hike. The dividend has not been raised since 2017. We would see it as a hold for income, and some growth. Most of its exposure is outside of the US, but Trump may still have a 'sentiment' impact on the sector. 
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The bar wasn't high for them last year, but they still didn't exceed it. Wind performance remains an issue and the ambiguous management change caused unrest. Also, they had a problem with a sub-contractor in Taiwan where a death (not their fault) created bad press. They just hired a new CEO, who came from CNQ's board and Total, who will maintain the 7.3% dividend and will hit milestones in offshore wind (not exposed to the US, which is good). He likes the new CEO. They are in the building/development cycle, which they are good at. It's very positive. He would make this a top pick.

He recently added to it. There's $25-26/share of asset value, considering all their projects on a NAV value. Question is, how will they finance growth? The answer is their new CEO, from Atkins Realis. He sees lots of value in NPI.

Not sure if tariffs would be applied to this type of cross-border energy. Hit along with all the other clean energy. Likes it here. Nibbling on weakness. Compelling yield. Doesn't see a lot of upside, capped in mid-$20s for next 3-5 years.