Stockchase Opinions

Norman Levine Newmont Mining NMC-T HOLD Dec 05, 2006

Have great problems, but have some operational difficulties at a couple of their big properties, which has moved their costs up and margins down. Feels that is largely behind them and the stock is starting to move up.
$53.900

Stock price when the opinion was issued

precious metals
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COMMENT
(Market Call Minute.) Gold stocks tend to trade as a group but this wouldn't be his first choice. It will participate in the strength of precious metals.
BUY
Gold stocks are starting to perform better. He likes this one because it is internationally diverse. Because it is one of the biggest, it has a lot of new projects coming on stream at any one time. Very well financed.
COMMENT
Have to de-consolidate Indonesian operations, which will create significant downward pressure on cash flow. Will also have to make a large acquisition that he thinks will be dilutive. (Pair traded with a Long on Barrick (ABX-T).)
HOLD
3 stocks he would look at in gold would be Barrick (ABX-T), GoldCorp (G-T) or Newmont (NMC-T). They are all seniors and well run. The problem is, gold stocks have not kept up with the commodity. Gold had been in a short-term bubble and is now coming off.
COMMENT
Price was just under $45 and caller bought August $44 Calls. Stock rallied in the afternoon and he sold the weekly July $45 Calls. Comments? What you are doing is taking advantage of the daily fluctuation in typical gold mining companies, which means you are getting very good premium. Option premiums decline in and exponential fashion. If you consistently do this and you can pick up those opportunities, eventually you will end up fully paying for the cost of the option you bought. This is called Time or Calendar Spread. Probably really works well on this company and is a great way to do it.
WATCH

He would be inclined to cover any short. He thinks they have seen the lows in gold. These may be overdue for a pop. Should see $34+ when earnings start to come out. The seasonal trade is setting up.

N/A

They are saying the ABX-T offer is just not good enough. It wants to stick with the plan with G-T to put together a joint venture for the Nevada assets which is really what ABX-T was after. There is key resistance at $1175 in gold. Over the last 6 months we were bottoming in August and have gathered steam ever since. Shorts scrambled to cover their positions. To go above neutral into bullish we have to get above $1375 and are due for a pullback.

BUY

He thinks gold will likely go higher. NMC is one of the largest miners in Canada. He has been favoring KL for his clients as well.

COMMENT

He thinks the macro fundamentals for gold are positive for the first time in a while. He is adding it to his portfolio. We are crossing into a new paradigm with how much government support is driving this market. There will eventually be a cost for this and gold is a good hedge to the "fiscal recklessness". He purchased ABX, because of the dividend yield that went with it.

BUY

He's very bullish copper which will be lifted by China's reopening and strong demand to come. This is on his buy list.