
TSE:NGD
Very few companies that are building real projects, so it is now up to them to do it on time and on budget. Project is in BC and then they are coming back to Ontario. With the Cdn$ down, the market should support them. Because of the nature of building things and timing capital, there is always this sweet spot that you never quite know exactly where it is. 12 months before they actually start producing is probably the best time to buy.
Have access to high-quality deals, because of the quality of the board and management team. He is struggling to see the new leg of growth. Their Blackwater or Rainy River projects probably made more sense in a higher gold price environment. Rainy River probably has a better chance of eventually coming into a play that they can actually finance. Wouldn’t be surprised if there might be some acquisitions to fill the gap for 2016, and use some of that cost of capital they have, to make that acquisition.
A midsize gold producer, mostly focused around the Americas. Production is around 400,000 ounces a year. Current production is not so important; it is really expectations of future production. You really have to get comfortable with development assets because they have a suite of very large development assets in Canada. He is not looking for companies that have to plow a lot of cash and capital into the ground to keep production growing and generate free cash flow. This company is caught up in that position, where most of their cash flow right now is going to be reinvested to bring on new assets. Great for adding value long-term, but for him, he is looking for free cash flow and there is not a lot. Fairly valued now. Management team is probably one of the best in the business.
Technically this is in an upward trend, outperforming the Canadian market and very close to breaking out which would be a confirmation of an upward trend. Also, trading above its 20 day moving average. However, there is some resistance at around $8.30 which doesn’t create too much concern. Historically, the stock doesn’t do very well from February to July of each year.
Cheap, but she would hold off buying. The knocks in previous years have always been about growth projects so they went in and bought Blackwater and just recently, Rainy River. Both projects economics are not very attractive at $1300 gold. Because of a lack of growth profile, she would hold off. She is on the sidelines and wants to watch how the company executes.