Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSINetflix Inc.NFLXHOLDMay 29, 2024

Recently disappointing. Price now below 200-day MA, which has started to roll over. It's still the leader. Going back to its roots of creating content, and now getting into live sports. Trades at 24.5x forward PE, and ~23% growth. Valuation makes a lot of sense, but technical structure a bit soft. His team is evaluating.

Still looking at this one. Lots of moving parts. Likes the business, great moat. Multiple right now is rich. His team likes growth but needs a margin of safety, and they're still assessing prospects of a reasonable rate of return. First-mover advantage has given way to competition.

Clear global leader in high-quality video content streaming. Pricing power in the face of competition, best-in-class customer retention. He expects revenue to grow at double-digit pace, margins should expand. 

Aggressive investment in movies and shows, but increasingly podcasts and live events. Capitalizing on digital ads. Earnings should grow at 22% compound pace for next 3 years. Trades ~22x PE, good tradeoff between value and growth. Share buybacks. No dividend.

Can't see them returning to growth in 2020-4 given competition. Also, how we consume content is changing. Returns are poor. Is not attractive at near-30x PE.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Popped up on WBD deal exit, and then fell on Q1's softer earnings outlook. Still a secular winner in streaming. Still attractive today.

Peak was during Covid. Streaming on other platforms is a real headwind. Good company and good delivery mechanism, but they need to boost content.

He has a core holding on either side of 3.5% -- he trims on the way up, buys back on the way down and writes options around it. Price for another (but smaller) M&A deal is ongoing. 

His 12-month price target is $116.33. Buy a third here ~$88, another third ~$84-85, and then ~$80.

It reports tomorrow. Every quarter is feast or famine. They announced a price increase. Subscription growth, who knows? The stock remains undervalued, is #1 in this industry and has more levers to pull, like live sports.

They report Thursday. It's a juggernaut. He gives them the benefit of the doubt to keep building and growing.

The advertising business is very good and they are cracking down on passwords. It has been beaten up because of its pursuit of Warner Brothers. It didn't go through so the stock has started recovering. It is revisiting and adding new content, and building out its sports contracts. He sees earning growth at 20%. 

Is starting to look at it after NFLX dropped its Warners bid. He likes their business, excellent. If it pulls back 10-20%, he's probably enter. Is still researching it.

She added more Netflix and is slowly adding to it. She only recently started buying it for the first time, because it was always too expensive in PE. They're not buying Warners, so their story is much simpler. There's 20% earnings growth, 12-14% revenue group as operating margins expand and resume buybacks. Trades at a not-cheap 29x forward vs. 35x historic. Is still well below highs.

They're pricing power has been confirmed many times. He likes it a lot.

They will stream MLB's opening night. He sold this before NFLX backed out of the Warners deal and shares jumped. He will get back into this. Live sports will attract more customers, efficiently. During the World Baseball Classic, NFLX streamed it and attracted 31 million viewers in Japan.