Netflix Inc.NFLXTOP PICKApr 11, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 11, 2026. Market Open.
Streaming industry has become much more competitive. Difficulty maintaining a consistent, ongoing subscriber base (rather than intermittent), which also affects advertiser interest. Wait to see action on this issue before committing more $$.
Disclaimer: Not owned in segregated client accounts. However, her colleague John O'Connell owns it in the equity fund that he manages.
It's had a rough year, following the failed Warners bid. He still likes it, because the business is performing quite well. They have more subscribers and revenues outside the U.S. where they have little competition and are growing rapidly. Also, they replaced the head of content, and are looking to ad sports. Lots of ways to improve growth ahead.
(Analysts’ price target is $86.35)The fundamentals are as good or better as people have hoped. But there are worries that people are watching YouTube and no longer Netflix, but this is not in the numbers. These things reverse very quickly. Look at Google's stock. He thinks Netflix will grow at double digits for many years.
Streaming is the new normal. Clear leader, the proof is in their huge and growing subscriber count. Competitive landscape. Strong pricing power and best-in-class customer retention via aggressive investment in original content. Tailwind of digital advertising. Should be rapid free cashflow growth. Consensus is compounded earnings of 28% over next 3 years. At 34x, discount valuation of 20% compared to its own history. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $621.10)