Netflix Inc.NFLXCOMMENTMay 03, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 11, 2026. Market Open.
Streaming industry has become much more competitive. Difficulty maintaining a consistent, ongoing subscriber base (rather than intermittent), which also affects advertiser interest. Wait to see action on this issue before committing more $$.
Disclaimer: Not owned in segregated client accounts. However, her colleague John O'Connell owns it in the equity fund that he manages.
It's had a rough year, following the failed Warners bid. He still likes it, because the business is performing quite well. They have more subscribers and revenues outside the U.S. where they have little competition and are growing rapidly. Also, they replaced the head of content, and are looking to ad sports. Lots of ways to improve growth ahead.
(Analysts’ price target is $86.35)The fundamentals are as good or better as people have hoped. But there are worries that people are watching YouTube and no longer Netflix, but this is not in the numbers. These things reverse very quickly. Look at Google's stock. He thinks Netflix will grow at double digits for many years.
Trades at an amazingly large valuation. It went to crazy astronomical valuations based on growth. They pursued international expansion and have grown subscribers that way as well. To remain competitive, they’ve had to invest in content, which is exceptionally difficult, so it becomes no different than a movie company, a risky proposition. They say they are making money, but what they don’t tell you is that they invest a huge amount of money, capitalize a bunch of expenses, and slowly write off those costs against some accountant’s view of how long they are going to be able to earn a revenue stream off that.