Opinions John Kim
New Flyer Industries Inc.NFI.TOWAITSep 25, 2019
John KimStock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 27, 2026. Market Open.
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If you still like the company, rough times are a chance to accumulate shares.
Long list of problems; hopefully now solutions being implemented. Some competitors have folded up their tents, so competition is less but pricing power is higher. Full order backlog. Supply chain is under control. Hope for dividend to be reinstated in a couple of years.
Ryan BushellSupply chain issues, on and off. It's a complex business with the 1000s of components required (if you're missing just one you can't ship the bus, inventory builds, and you have a working capital problem). These issues are transitory, though the current battery issue is more complicated.
Solid business, very difficult to displace, essential service. Investor's doing the right thing. Backlog is growing, and at some point that will mean much better profitability. You have to be patient.
Demand is there, but had supply chain issues. Plus battery recall, which delayed production. Underlying fundamentals are still strong.
Rebecca TeltscherHe owns it in the Canadian portfolio. There is a supply shortage of buses and it has a new big order from Toronto. There have been some liquidity challenges but they are abating. They make any kind of bus but the electric ones carry the biggest price premium so they can make more money on them.
Jamie Murray One of only 2 names she owns with no dividend. For her to do that, she really has to have conviction on the company and its stock price trajectory. Biggest segment is manufacturing transit buses, also does coach buses. Supply chain issue with seats is slowly getting alleviated. Backlog at record levels. Pricing environment is good.
Very limited competition, as pandemic wiped out most of their peers. Public funding is still strong. One of the only companies that complies with buy-American-zero-emissions policy. No dividend.
Rebecca TeltscherCompetition has withered away. Pays no dividend. He's held this through some tough periods. The problem with a seat suppliers seems to be resolved. Huge backlog. They can withstand tariffs. If they deliver some buses in Q2, 3 and 4, the stock will look good in 12 months.
(Analysts’ price target is $20.50)Ryan BushellStruggled over the years. Good exposure to EVs. Problem is lots of leverage. As well, a bus can't be shipped if it's missing even 1 component; it has to wait. Exposed to tariffs, as it relies on US for some of those parts.
Management's done well refinancing debt and working through problems. If problems can be resolved, could have very high performance over next few years.
He's been adding. Their downturn lat year started with a seat supplier, then tariff worries hit. Eventually, shares will bounce. They have almost no competition in transit buses in the US. We'll see.
Ryan BushellAt the end of the day, being a manufacturer is quite tough. Plus, they're in Canada. Significant amount of debt. Counting on smaller levels of government making orders, but there's not a lot of $$ to go around. These buses are a big capital expenditure, and it's hard to justify that in a budget. No dividend.
Instead look for a company that produces component parts at low cost, but very important to the vehicle. That component would have an element of pricing power.
One of the only players left for electric buses, which gives them more bargaining flexibility. Latest supply-chain issue on seats is a one-off. Backlog is bigger than ever. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $20.80)Rebecca Teltscher
The pandemic hurt them with supply chain troubles. It is well run and the balance sheet should get better. It is the only game in town for municipalities buying buses. He thinks the dividend gets re-instated in 2025 or 26.
Ryan Bushell
