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Nova Chemicals Corp. (NCX.TO)

WEAK BUY
Affected by natural gas which is their biggest input, as well as the price of plastic in the aftermarket. Should be making lots of money right now, as natural gas prices are relatively low. This has a commodity type of risk which you have to be aware of.
BUY
This is commodity sensitive and has been hurt by rising costs. It is right on the long-term support level. It is probably not a bad place to be. Do not let it make a 52-week low.
DON'T BUY
If natural gas heads back up towards $12/14, the question is how fast can they pass on their costs. Probably not fast enough. On the other hand, if they global boom continues, demand will increase and they have the ability to meet that demand. An unfavourable risk.
DON'T BUY
A pure play on commodities. You have to be careful. Chart it has pulled back but looking at the long-term chart, is back to its previous lows.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
He feels it has to go to $29.60 and would be a big buyer there. Earnings estimates have been coming down and his model price has been coming down although it is still at $45.21. You could buy a small position at this price.
SELL
It has just broken down through a pattern of lows which has been playing out through the last year. Likes chemical companies, but you don't want to own this one.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 7/05. Down 22%.) Has been a disappointment. Ethylene prices have been firm but buyers have been balking at paying these prices. The company is going to eventually make good money and he is looking for it to recover. This is a good entry point.
BUY
Have had a lot of problems with hurricanes, plant breakdowns, etc. but it should come around. An overlooked play. Their gas supply is much cheaper. On his watch list to see if they can recover.
DON'T BUY
Nova Chemical has good value and a lot of potential. Investors don't like what they see as the stock is breaking down. Not a stock he would like to hold.
DON'T BUY
The stock did very well for a while. Now it has fallen and unable to get above the 200 base day moving average. Stay away from it for now.
TRADE
Follows natural gas prices.
DON'T BUY
Looks a little ahead of itself. Be cautious.
BUY
The company uses natural gas to make its chemicals. Currently, their stock price is 45-60% down. However, this company has an advantage in that it's gas is $0.01/.02 cheaper than others. They had some problems with their plant in Sarnia as well as some tornadoes in Alberta and thus lost their fourth-quarter profit. They should do better in the second half of the year. May not be a bad time to look at it.
TOP PICK
A very misunderstood stock. Had a plant that was closed for maintenance which was extended. Right now ethylene and polyethylene prices are doing very well. Feels the margins are going to expand. Can see them earning $5/6 this year.
WAIT
Hit by a number of problems in the last few years. They are also in a squeeze from the rising price of gas. Once they get their Sarnia plant back on, things should improve. On his watch list.
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