Micron Technology (MU)

The market and Micron are getting toppy. This can go down to $80, no problem. This is a trade, not investment.

Is merely okay after a couple of mediocre quarters. Is no catalyst to raise this higher.

Hyper-cyclical earnings. Storage and memory chips, which are like a commodity and so you have big swings. Consensus is for earnings to grow over 400% this year, not because of innovation but because of the demand cycle. Go back 10 years and this name has generated a total compound return of 10%, which is less than the S&P. Beta is 1.9.

Impacted not only by tariff rhetoric, but also because it's a very cyclical business. 12-month price target of $118.50, but with a lot of volatility in between. If you're underwater right now, write some calls; if it starts to approach the strike price, and you don't want to get called away, just roll the strike price up.

Their high bandwidth business is on fire. Shares have fallen far and look attractive. Sees little downside.

12-month price target of $128.70, clear runway. Cyclical. When out of favour, that can last for quite a while. AI revolution gives quite an appetite for its products.

MU is a trade, not an investment. They design and make chips. The DRAM is its biggest product; but memory chips like this are highly cyclical with changing demand. He sold MU last summer.

It reports Wednesday. It had a nice rally today. He hopes they tell a positive story about all their chips, not just the high bandwidth ones.

A long shot, at a much cheaper valuation from the group. Held back because memory tends to be a bit volatile on the chip side. Less risk on the trade side. More memory being built into data centres.

Its chart shows a rounded bottom. It has had a move up out of the base and then a pullback to test the hammer so it looks ok.

When ASML reported its disappointing memory-chip earnings, he sold this one as a result. This business is so very cyclical; once sold off, takes anywhere from 2-6 quarters to come back.

ASML also talked about how China has built out facilities for memory chips. So, another supply of memory chips that will influence cyclicality in the space.

They delivered a great quarter, but don't get the credit they deserve.

Volatile, and that's the price you pay for these growth stocks with higher reward potential. Really likes its business and where earnings come from. Tied to buildout of servers and data centres and AI-driven push. Latest earnings were really strong, with anticipated increased demand and revenue.

He'd be OK to buy, but you have to be comfortable with the volatility. It can go down more than the market on a down day. But if you stick with this one, sees upside from current levels. The bottom is in; ride up to $140-150, and then be cautious.

The memory market is much more cyclical than other sectors of tech. MU is expected to see massive growth in 2025 (based on EPS consensus) but recent downgrades have caused investors to question this growth. The balance sheet and cash flow remain fine, and generally we like the company. On 2024 earnings it is quite expensive, but VERY cheap IF it can actually hit the earnings estimates. 2025 EPS is estimated at $9.48, vs 2024E $1.23. We think it can be bought today if one has some patience and fortitude. 
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