Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase Insights Micron Technology MU-Q PARTIAL BUY Sep 16, 2024

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The memory market is much more cyclical than other sectors of tech. MU is expected to see massive growth in 2025 (based on EPS consensus) but recent downgrades have caused investors to question this growth. The balance sheet and cash flow remain fine, and generally we like the company. On 2024 earnings it is quite expensive, but VERY cheap IF it can actually hit the earnings estimates. 2025 EPS is estimated at $9.48, vs 2024E $1.23. We think it can be bought today if one has some patience and fortitude. 
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TRADE

The market and Micron are getting toppy. This can go down to $80, no problem. This is a trade, not investment.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 07/24, Down 22%)

He's done with memory stocks. The industry has only a few dominant players, and this name is one of them. Yet, there's still crazy cyclicality and it's hard to be differentiated.

TRADE

It plays in memory and storage tech, and is really cyclical. He targets $142. It doesn't compete with TSMC, very agonistic, because they are a factory and don't design chips.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They just reported a strong quarter. But shares have run $60 to $126 and can't go higher. 

PARTIAL BUY

Up 10% the past month. It ran up huge into the quarter, but has since gone done. We've seen this pattern better.  Buy some tomorrow, then wait for a 10% interval to buy more.

WAIT

Up 13% in the last 6 months. The stock is inexpensive, but the chart tells him to wait. It had a good run, and now the market says it looks bad.

PARTIAL BUY

It has two businesses. One is high-bandwidth memory which goes into data centres, and two is DRAM which is having poor pricing. You need DRAM pricing to rebound, though you can buy a few shares now.

TOP PICK

Not a direct competitor to NVDA, but very strong in DRAM and NAND markets. Impressed by mid-quarter update which boosted earnings projections by 10-15% for the quarter. Cheaper than peers in the space, could be re-rated when the market wakes up to that. 

Another way to access and get excited about the AI buildout. Yield is 0.38%.

(Analysts’ price target is $150.70)
Unspecified

He has invested in it in the past. AI demand for memory is accelerating so it is well positioned. Can be considered an oligarchy and should continue to do well.

WAIT

Likes the CEO, who is prudent and cautious, but the stock has run up 80% this year. Reports next week.