Andrew PyleMetro Inc (A)MRU.TOTOP PICKSep 18, 2023

Grocery space in Canada is interesting because COST and WMT have taken the lion's share of industry growth over the last 10 years. So Metro and peers are targeting niches that those two can't reach -- discount banners, more private-label products. 

In a challenging consumer environment, it's going to continue to be a bifurcated market -- discount banners on the low end, and specialty shops on the high end. MRU still has a great position, but probably not a lot of growth.

Grocers are under a lot of pressure due to perception of gouging, though inflation and increased energy costs are factors as well. Great niche, great properties.

For him, the preference is Loblaw -- the Energizer Bunny that just keeps going and going. Dominant player. 

Consumer staples have not kept up with the market, perhaps over inflation concerns. Politicians scream about the price of groceries, where margins are so thin.  He would continue to look at this. Are well-position in discount grocers through Food Basics where there is more and more business.

Loblaw is the best, so that's the one he wants to own.

When he recommended it, it was poised to break out, based on indicators like strong institutional buying. Also, he wanted exposure to defensives. Really happy with this pick.

The ultimate winner in inflation. Tough business, low margins, competitive. He owns COST. Loblaw is well run, as are MRU and EMP.A

It's broken out since mid-July in a solid run. We're late in the overall cycle in which energy, materials and staples thrive, because this is when inflation comes back. Unfortunately, he expects inflation to return in 2025. Staples can pass on inflation to consumers.

Loves the grocery sector, an oligopoly. Better growth prospects, better margins, but higher valuation in the space.

Buys grocers for defensiveness and value, not growth. He hasn't been trimming, still some runway to go. Efficiency gains in the space have been incredibly strong via technology. Rate cuts support households, which supports retail including grocers.

Believes grocery business will be strong through the summer & current economic cycle. Share price reflecting value for long term investors. Stock breaking out into new highs. Groceries a great place to hide during this time. 

Trading at market multiple. Raised dividend. Low-risk business, with only 3 grocery stores in Canada. Took advantage of increase in food prices, but now prices are coming down. Excess profit will be squeezed out. Won't lose money, but won't make it either for the next 2 years. Enjoy the dividend.

Retail food business in Canada performing well in Canada.
Would buy stock on weakness.
Current share price valued high.
Sector will continue to perform well given nature of industry. 

Very expensive, trading up near maximums. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.

High quality grocery, plus now a major drugstore operator. Targeted marketing to customers results in a higher spend per basket. Impressive management, impressive returns. Good balance sheet. At 17x, more expensive than the market, so avoid. Instead, try NWC at 13x and a bigger yield at 4.5%.