MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC Common Stock (MDLZ)

Nothing much has changed in MDLZ’s fundamentals over the years, except the valuation has gone down and it is now trading at 18.8x times' Forward P/E ( a fair valuation given MDLZ consistently has traded above 20x). The leverage level has gone down meaningfully in recent years, and the net debt/EBITDA level is now at 1.9x, the lowest in years, indicating a capacity for raising dividends or buying back shares. The company has been a predictable grower, and we think MDLZ would be comfortable to grow 3%-5% for a very long time, it is an attractive dividend grower over time, but the business is mature and fairly low growth overall. We would be OK owning it for income but otherwise do not see it as overly interesting. 
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Good company, but now up against weight-loss drugs. Makes the core thesis tough. High cocoa prices increased input prices. Lots of international sales, so a strong USD is not constructive.

At the time of this pick, GLP weight-loss drugs were creating overhang on the stock. Very well run. Great presence internationally. Recent quarter underwhelming, lower-income US consumer starting to get pressured. Happy to hold due to market dominance and attractive valuation.

A leader in biscuits and chocolate, with very little private label competition. Very strong brand loyalty. Innovating and acquiring. Disposing of lower-growth areas such as gum. Likes the topline growth, as well as incremental margin growth. Decent yield of 2.4%.

Return on capital inconsistent and low. Free cash flow also not too high. Insider ownership also unclear. Food and beverage hard to compete with if company has a strong moat. Unclear on future of business. Better options for investors in the markets. 

Owns shares and believes in prospects of business. Chocolate business very strong. "Snack business" also growing at high rate. Able to pass on costs to consumers. Brand loyalty continues to grown. Strong array of products. Stable business that is good for defensive investors. 

Owns a lot of products that don't make money, no return on capital, so needs to rationalize its products. Own these companies now, because you'll reap from the fruition of these efforts. May be some volatility.

Have pricing power, passing higher prices to consumers. Are rapidly growing in emerging markets like Africa. It yields 2.4% now and grows its dividend at 13% compounded over the last decade. It's highly defensive, boasting strong brands like Cadbury.

Very strong portfolio of brands (Oreo & Ritz etc.). Recent selloff of stock due to weight loss drugs hitting the market. Not worried about selloff and believes is over stated. Very attractive share price to buy at. 

It pulled back due to a new obesity drug with concerns that this may reduce consumption of their products which are mainly snacks - it leads in biscuits and chocolate. However there is lots of brand loyalty and it is branching out into different categories. There is long term growth with 35% of its revenue coming from emerging  markets. It is at a good entry point.

The impact of the weight-loss drugs will heavily affects the snacks business. Also, their valuation is high.

#1 global share in biscuits. #2 in chocolate, and growing its share. Very little private label competition in biscuits and chocolate, huge brand loyalty. A name to own for the decade. Increased both prices and volume. EM is higher growth, but cyclical. Divesting and redeploying capital. Raised EPS guidance to 12% YOY. Reasonable multiple. Yield is 2.38%.

#1 in biscuits and #2 in chocolate behind Mars and gaining share. Benefited during Covid when people ate more snacks. Consumers keep buying established brands like theirs. They raised prices and have pricing power, so volumes rose. Expanding into cake and pastries and emerging markets.

Consumer and packaged food stocks can keep rallying. As we approach another debt-ceiling crisis, these stocks are good places to invest in. The whole sector. They are resilient. People take comfort in their favourite brand, from Campbell's soup to Hershey's chocolate. Consumers still buy them despite higher prices. Supply chain problems have been solved and freight costs have fallen, too. Raw costs like paper (cardboard) are falling, though such companies have existing purchase contracts. There's still room to run.

Demonstrated strength of company with performance the past year.
Despite increasing costs, still able to raise prices.
High brand loyalty.
Making steps into new categories (baked goods and pastries).
Well positioned for the long term shareholder.